2008 Preseason Prognostication Revisited

Now that the World Series has faded into recent memory it should be time to start focusing on the 2009 season for the Tampa Bay Rays. We’ll get there some time this off season, but for right now lets do a quick review of this blog’s preseason picks. Luckily, due to my sheer laziness there are only three predictions that we have to review. So without further ado here we go!

Prediction number 1

When it comes down to it they just play in too tough of a division right now to expect the 90 wins necessary to be talked about in the play off hunt.

So I was wrong. I’m not ashamed to admit it. Luckily, I was wrong in a good way. The Rays surpassed everyone’s expectations by winning 97 games in the regular season. They smashed their way past the White Sox in the divisional series and out lasted the Red Sox in the league championship series before getting out played by the Phillies in the World Series.

I had listed a bunch of “what if’s” that could sneak the Rays into the wild card hunt, but oddly enough even though most of those “what if’s” didn’t come true they were still the best team in the American League. It just hammered home the truthfulness of the cliché that pitching and defense wins championships.

This prediction was wrong.

Prediction number 2

Carlos Pena - 37 home runs, .269 average 120 RBI’s

Instead of making bold team predictions I was planning on predicting the numbers of all nine position players and the pitching staff. I made it through 2 players. What can I say I’m lazy and often don’t live up to my ideals. So how did I do with Mr. Pena?

2008 Carlos Pena stats - 31 home runs, .247 average 102 RBI’s

Considering the putrid start he got off to I was amazed to be as close as I was. Through the end of June he had 11 homeruns and was hitting .229. His bat warmed up down the stretch as he hit 20 home runs the rest of the way while hitting above .250 in each of the last three months.

It appeared that he might have been pushing early in the season as he was striving to live up to his large off season deal. Just as his bat was starting to warm up he suffered a broken finger against Boston in June. While the time off might have prevented him from hitting 40 home runs it also kept him from striking out 200 times.

Plus if you add the 3 home runs and 10 RBI’s in the postseason I’m barely off on power numbers so I give myself a partial correct here.

Prediction number 3

Aki Imamura - 12 home runs, .2, 0 average 57 RBI’s

Aki!’s actual 2008 stats - 6 home runs, .274 average and 48 RBI’s

I thought that with a year under his belt Aki! would find his power groove. I was wrong. Even though he had 130 more at bats than 2007 his home run numbers decreased by one. That might speak more to his role at the top of the line up than his ability.

However, it was his defense at second base that provided the most value to the team. In 990 chances he only had 7 errors - most of those coming later in the season. Had he struggled at his new position there might have been the urge to move him back to his natural 3rd base position which might have delayed the development of Evan Longoria. That isn’t a concern now, nor is any other position in the infield. The four players in the infield (Iwamura, Pena, Longoria and Jason Bartlett) should hopefully play together for many seasons to come. Which would be something that can only make the Rays stronger.

So in the end I was wrong on two predictions and partially correct on the 3rd. Not the best success rate, but I have a feeling it was as good as anyone else’s.

The Great Football Card Trade

I’ve been spending a lot of time (and a fair bit of money) on cards lately. That’s probably not the best way to be spending money while remodeling the condo. Oh, and I can’t forget the whole economic recession thing. Now, however, space is starting to become an issue. The closet that I’ve been using is full and our place doesn’t really have much storage. So it’s time to get rid of some cards.

After much contemplation (5 minutes) I’ve decided to cull all of the football cards from my collection. The easiest way I figured to do it was sort by team and find someone to trade with. Thanks to the internet tubes I’ve found several sports cards sites written by collectors and traders (see links for a couple that I‘ve already traded with). While most of them deal in baseball I have seen a couple of that collect football as well.

I’m trying to keep this as uncomplicated as possible. I’m offering all of my cards of a particular team for trade. That includes commons, parallels, inserts, everything. I won’t send any doubles unless they are decent rookie cards.

In return I’m looking for Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Lightning or Goalie cards in return. I’ll also post a wants list one of these days for the series I need to finish.
That’s pretty much it. If you’re interested send me an email or leave me a comment.

Here is the list:

Atlanta Falcons
Arizona Cardinals
Baltimore Ravens / Baltimore Colts
Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers
Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Dallas Cowboys
Denver Broncos
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Houston Texans / Houston Oilers
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saints
New York Giants
New York Jets
Oakland Raiders
Philadelphia Eagles
Pittsburgh Steelers
Saint Louis Rams
San Diego Chargers
San Francisco 49’ers
Seattle Seahawks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tennessee Titans
Washington Redskins

US Unemployment Numbers Increase By One

And on a humid, December Friday afternoon the Barry Melrose Era came to a crashing end. The first year Lightning head coach was let go the day after the team squandered a 2 goal league against the defending champion Detroit Red Wings. Assistant coach Rick Tocchet has been named the interim coach. With several “big name” coaches seeking employment his tenure may be short

OK Hockey made the decision because, “the results were unexcitable the players have to understand that we need to be better”. Those were the words spoken by Brian Lawton according to the St Pete Times. Whether its trades or organizational announcements Lawton has been making a lot of statements in the press lately.

Sixteen games isn’t a long time to judge a head coach. Even though Melrose’s team was only victorious 5 times in those 16 games the quick hook is another sign that a sense of panic may be setting in with the ownership. A lackluster start to the season and below average performance from their offensive stars, both new and old, has led to many empty seats in the Ice Palace. Empty seats is one thing that this ownership group cannot afford.

Melrose, a controversial replacement for fiery John Tortorella, never seemed to fit in the TBA area. His detractors were numerous and seemed to have endless reasons why he shouldn’t be behind the bench. Whether it was his preferred hair style (slick backed mullet), his lack of recent coaching experience or the opinions he uttered as an analyst during the Bolts Stanley Cup run in 2003-04 the cantankerous commenting crowd never ceased their cry for his immediate termination. His recent fawning over the Detroit organization ruffled their precious feathers even more. Now, however, they can raise a toast to his inglorious demise and search the roster for another victim to unleash their written (and often misspelled) vitriol.

Don’t weep for Melrose. The deal he signed was for three years so he will at least get a paycheck for the foreseeable future as Lawton said they would honor it. In these trying times that’s not a bad thing. Along with Tortorella OK Hockey is now paying two gentlemen to not coach their team. As early as it is in the season there is still a good chance that they can add to that total.

The well coifed gentleman will undoubtedly appear on a television screen soon. Perhaps he could occupy a seat to the right of Tortorella as a fellow TSN studio analyst. I’m sure the two of them could trade amusing stories of their short tenures as the top commander in the OK Hockey Army.

Meanwhile, back in the self anointed Hockey Bay, USA Tocchet will inherit a team in shambles. Of their five wins only one of them comes against a team that has won more than half of its games (Buffalo). The offense is lethargic at best, showing energy only on rare even-strength occasions and unable to put a full 60 minutes of hard-nosed, aggressive play together on one night. Perhaps if one were to add up all the moments of high caliber play so far through this season it would equal a full game, but they have yet to be the best team on the ice in a nightly basis.

The revolving door on defense has been well documented and there is no need to go over it again. The only redeeming quality on this team has been the goaltending and that can’t last forever. Mike Smith has seen more rubber than a Goodyear salesman. He is facing an average of 36 shots per game. At that pace he would only need to play in 48 games to break Kevin Weeks team record of shots against of 1742 set during the glory years of the early 2000’s.

Until there is some sort of stability on the roster the team will continue to struggle. This isn’t a bad team made of up of unskilled players. The boys in Lightning blue have a tremendous amount of talent, however they seem to have no focus, no tenacity and no joy. Look at the bench - do you see any smiles? It deems there hasn’t been any humor reported in Tampa since the night in Toronto when they let Steven Stamkos skate onto the ice all by his lonesome.

So what comes first - winning or the joie de vie on the ice that leads to more winning? Watch Alex Ovcehkin when he scores or when one of his linemates scores. It’s like watching someone score for the first time. When Vincent or Marty score it seems to be celebrated more with a sense of relief and the impending doom of one watching over their shoulder waiting for the other shoe to drop. Until this team relaxes and starts playing with confidence things won’t change.

Oddly enough Melrose leaves the Lightning with the second best winning percentage as a head coach. His .438 winning percentage ranked only behind Torts (.549) and well ahead of Terry Crisp (.421), Steve Ludzik (.345), Jacques Demers (.293) and Rick Paterson (.000). So from a certain point of view OK Hockey fired the second best coach in the history of the Lightning after only 16 games - that’s hardly fair.

Welcome To the Swap Meet

Never before have the cries of “Get Your Programs! Can’t Tell The Players Without a Program!” rung quite so true in the hallowed halls of the Ice Palace. Just twelve games into the season and the revolving door hasn’t stopped spinning yet.

On Friday it was Matt Carle’s turn to become an ex-member of the Lightning. Traded along with a draft pick to Philadelphia for Steve Eminger and Steve Downie Carle’s career with the Lightning was spectacular only it’s briefness. The centerpiece of the off-season Dan Boyle salary dump, Carle was supposed to be the heir apparent in terms of free wheeling, offense sparking blue liner, and at 24 a much younger option.

Through 12 games Carle had spent almost 22 minutes per game patrolling the ice, but had registered only one goal and one assist. Neither one of those marks on the score sheet came with the man advantage and that more than anything made him expendable to the new regime.
With Carle leaving there has been almost a 100% overhaul of the blueline. Only Andrej Meszaros remains from the squad that started the season in Prague. It has yet to be determined if that is a good thing or not. The defense was a question mark going into the season and remains so now a month into it.

Speaking of the new regime it’s hard to see where they’re going with this team. It’s still early to claim that there isn’t a plan. After all, a full season hasn’t passed, but it’s starting to look that way. Moving Shane O’Brien who had failed to impress under the former regime or Dan Koci an enforcer with a whopping 41 seconds of playing is one thing. Moving a 24 defenseman who was supposed to be a cornerstone of the new look Lightning is something totally different.

This was their guy, not a Feaster guy or a Tortorella guy or even an Art Williams guy. He “fit with our plan of trying to get to younger and better”, Brian Lawton uttered those words just after completing the deal for Carle. So dealing him away must mean they want to get older and worse. Trying to justify dealing him away Lawton said that Eminger and Carle are “very comparable in a lot of ways”. Apparently points isn’t one of those comparable ways. In 61 more games Eminger has 11 less goals and 20 less points.

The regime has been branded “cowboys” by the ex coach and rumors of an owner diagramming plays during an intermission haven’t been put to bed yet. Moves like this tend to show a lack of faith in the players, the staff, the scouts and even in ownership. If a key piece of the defense can be moved for an underachieving 3rd line defenseman and cap space than who is safe? Will the next two game losing streak cost Jussi Jokinen his spot on the team? Maybe a free fall into last place will result in Vincent getting moved to Montreal. That should free up plenty of space for new acquisitions. In the end, they have to play the cards that have been dealt. Constant change for the sake of change is no way to go through a season.

There could, however, be a much simpler explanation for the recent moves. The new regime could be planning a reunion. Maybe they were big fans of the 2003-04 Washington Capitals. Olaf Kolzig, Jeff Halpern, Matt Pettinger and Eminger all skated for that squad. If the next transaction notice is the Bolts signing Kip Miller or Ivan Ciernik we’ll all know what the plan is.

Hockey! Cardboard! Tiny Pieces of Sweaters! 2008-09 Fleer Ultra Madness!

As I headed up to the local shop I was hoping for a few packs of O-Pee-Chee. I really like the design of this year’s set and the non-glossy front makes for a good signing surface for autographs.

Unfortunately, they didn’t have any - they did, however, have a couple of boxes of 2008-09 Fleer Ultra. I really enjoyed last year’s set as it had all the basic requirements: low price, good photography and the occasional insert. Since the box was only about $70.00 I figured I would give it a whirl.

This is the first box I’ve bought since I decided on a new hockey collecting strategy. From now on I’m going to focus on just Lightning cards and goalie cards. So we’ll see how this box stacks up to those new guidelines.

Below is one pack from the hobby box I broke today. Left without a scanner I had to pull the images off of Upper Deck’s site.

Top Card:

Evgeni Malkin #77.



Geno looks like he’s getting ready to throw a check into the boards.

Tim Thomas #9. Goalie Card!

Chris Higgins #37. Looks like Chris is celebrating one of the 27 goals he scored last season.

Henrick Zetterberg Scoring Kings Insert #SK7. One of the minor insert sets that make Ultra either fun or maddening to collect.

Ryan Whitney Gold Medallion #79. Inserted one per pack this parrellel series makes it’s return from last year.

Henrick Zetterberg eX #24.

To celebrate the Lightning’s first win earlier this week I decided to treat myself to some hockey cards.

A new insert for this year. Fleer/Upper Deck bring back the eX format from the late 90’s. Seeded at a rate of 1:8 it’s a sharp looking insert. The player photo is actually raised off the service of the card. The service is clear acetate (doesn’t show up on the image).

Mike Cammalleri #116. No airbrushed uniforms here. The new Flames center is shown in his LA uniform. The team logo on the back is for his new team.

Alexander Radulov #170 The back of his card states that he has “shown improvement in each of his first two NHL seasons”. Good for him! Right now he’s probably better known as being in the center of a dispute between the Russian professional league and the NHL. It seems that this summer he signed a deal with Salavat Yulaev in the Russian Continental League. Unfortunately, he still had one year left on his Nashville contract.

Brad Richards #137 The former Lightning center and all around good guy is shown in his Dallas uniform.


Not a bad pack, it pretty much represents most of the other packs that I ripped from the box. Forty-three inserts out of the box, a rate of more than one per pack. It would be impossible to put together sets of all of the inserts breaking just packs, but I suppose that’s not the purpose of inserts.

As usual the Ultra brand has top notch photography and it’s fair share of horizontal cards which always look good. The price point for packs is set at $2.99 which is a little steep despite Fleer’s claim that this is an “affordable” brand. It makes me wonder what the pack price is going to be for their Upper Deck regular series.

Overall I give it a 3.0 out of 5.0.

All non-goalie and non-Lightning cards are available for trade. Just shoot me an email!

Box Score:

1 Rookie Redemption #15

19 Goalie Cards

6 Lightning Cards (Ryan Malone Mike Smith Jussi Jokinen Paul Ranger Karri Ramo Olaf Kolzig)

3 Difference Makers (Alexander Ovechkin Teemu Selanne Pavel Datsyuk)

2 Ice Medallion (Brian Boyle 90/100 Matt D’Agostini 36/100)

26 Gold Medallian

4 Scoring Kings (Sidney Crosby Henrik Zetterberg Ilya Kovalchuk Eric Staal)

3 eX (Thomas Vokoun Sam Gagner Henrik Zetterberg)

2 Season Crowns (Henrik Lundqvist Dan Ellis)

2 Franchise Players (Joe Sakic Sidney Crosby)

2 Ultra Uniformity (Rick Nash Roberto Luongo)

119 base cards

6 Ultra Rookies (Theo Peckham Ilya Zubov David Brine Derick Brassard Boris Valabik Marc-Andre Gragnani)

A Nation Defeated or....how a bunch of Mohawk wearing, cowbell clanging kids crashed the World Series

I’m not going to lie. I wrote off the Rays before game 7. In fact, I spent most of the afternoon penning a eulogy that will never see the light of day. I wasn’t mad or upset, just resigned to the fact that the Rays would lose and I would never be able to go to another baseball related comment board. If the annoying portion (any unfortunately the most vocal portion) of Red Sox fans had been insufferable before coming back from 3-1, 7-0 then they would be twice so after.

Luckily the Rays did what they’ve done best this year, prove everyone wrong. They ended up outplaying the seasoned veterans in game 7 and emerged victorious. Even after the early home run by Dustin Pedoria I still felt good about the game. For some reason you knew someone was going to come up big and that person was Matt Garza. The big right hander was extremely effective in holding the Sox to two hits over 7 plus innings. The win continued a theme that took place throughout the season. Three times this season they were counted out by the experts:

1. The 7 game losing streak before the All Star Break
2. The September series in Boston when the Rays were ahead by mere percentage points with two more games looming in Fenway Park.
3. Game 7

Whether they are two young, too stupid or too relaxed to care the 2008 Rays have a tendency to shine when the pressure is on the most. I’m pretty sure it starts with the man on top - Joe Maddon. Merlot Joe (as he has been crowned by other better written blogs) has managed this club with the perfect combination of discipline (yanking BJ Upton off the field) and chaos (Mohawks, beards, Jon Gomes). If Lou Pinella is still managing this club it’s still a 70 win club and there’s a good chance he’s destroyed the psyche of players like Matt Garza and Upton.

Maddon is going to be manager of the year, without a doubt. In the same token Andrew Freedman is the executive of the year. Is it fitting the two of the big three stars in game 7 weren’t with the club last year. Freedman took a chance on trading away future phenom Delmon Young and Brandon Harris for a shortstop with defensive problems (Jason Bartlett) and a former 1st round pick that had prodigious talent, but also had the cloud of emotional baggage hanging over his young career. In a slightly less heralded deal he shipped left hander Jeff Ridgeway to Atlanta for third baseman Willy Aybar a young switch hitting infielder who was coming off an injury and some legal issues. All he did in game 7 was hit a booming home run that gave the Rays a bit of breathing room.

Off the field moves like that built the future success of this year’s club. Once they won their 82nd game the season was a success. A record of .500 was all the fans and management had asked for. Yet bettering that goal and holding off the Red Sox to claim the division title suddenly wasn’t good enough. Radio hosts were saying that the season would be a disappointment if they lost in the first round.. Suddenly their unprecedented success has raised the expectations that were dangerously unreachable.

Dispatching the White Sox with relative ease and winning the first 3 of 4 against the Red Sox bumped the expectations up even more. Losing to the Red Sox wasn’t about losing to a better or worse team. It was about losing to their fans. Fans in the TBA (both new and old) have a serious identity problem. Years of less than mediocre teams and a giant influx of transplants consistently made the Trop a home away from home for powerhouses like the Red Sox and Yankees. It wasn’t until this year that the tide stated to turn and it seemed that losing to the Sox in the playoffs would have crushed the small gains made.

It’s fun to be able to laugh off the scorn and bitterness from other teams fans now. For today, and maybe just for today, the little brother won the fight against the older brother. The jabs about the Trop and it’s catwalks don’t sting as much. After all, take away the green monster in Fenway and what do you have? A 96 year old stadium with cramped seating, obstructed views and crappy plumbing. If the Rays are still playing in the Trop in 2080 I’m sure it will be regarded in the same light as Fenway is today.

The bitter residents of the pseudo-nation can whine about how cheesy the cowbells are, well so what? The clanging cowbells are still making noise while the saccharine lyrics of “Sweet Caroline” are silent. The bells are something unique in sports (well accept for downhill skiing I guess) and that’s something that’s missing in today’s sports world. A world where everyone has Thunder Stix or does the wave and is implored by the same tired onscreen graphics to cheer. They also give the stadium a unique noise. I have been going to sporting events for the better part of my 32 years on this planet and there are few arenas that I have been in that were louder than the Trop during Game 1 of the ALCS.

Of course when I sit in my seat on Wednesday, high up in the Beach I could experience a new high. I might not be banging a cowbell, but I’ll definitely be cheering as loud as I can for the team that wouldn’t go away.

One Game Away

As you can see I haven’t written much this month. Mainly because I didn’t want to jinx the Rays, but also because I’m quite lazy. Throw in some traveling, some tough days at the office and you end up going two months without posting to your own site. Sorry about that faithful readers. As the cold weather approaches expect more postings.

So with that out of the way lets get to the Rays. To steal a phrase from post game guru Rich Herrera it has indeed been a magical summer. As the months wore on the experts kept anticipating a fall. Sure they were good in May, but wait till the summer starts and they wilt in June. They made it through June, you say? Well surely they’ll fade by the All-Star Break. Seven game losing streak at the break - see I told you they couldn’t hold up - they’ll be done in August. Still in first? Well as we all know September is the months that dashes the hopes and dream of the pretenders.

Does that sound familiar? It certainly does to me. Even hulking Red Sox slugger David Ortiz had to recant his words. In July he told the media, “I’m not saying that they will drop, but if you go by the numbers, that’s normally what happens in baseball. It’s always the guys with more experience and the guys used to being in the same spot at the end of the year that take over” In September he had to admit that they were for real.

Now, Mr. Papi, the number that is most important is one. As in the Rays magic number to clinch the division. Proving people wrong has gotten old for this team. When Scott Kazmir uttered his infamous “What’s possible? Play in October, that’s possible” on February 16th fans of the Rays were treated to the following responses from the commenters on Deadspin:

The only way the rays are gonna play in October is if Selig decides to move the season back a few months to have a few more steroid hearings (DemecoShallInerittheEarth)

There's a better chance for the Kashmir dispute to be settled by October than for Kazmir to be right. (DumpDolan)

The negativity on the various other commenter boards is too inane to repeat here. Throughout the season, even on the local hometown paper’s website supposed fans, whined and moaned about the team. David Price wasn’t called up fast enough, they didn’t make any deals, BJ Upton never smiles so they should trade him, etc, etc.

Even though they kept winning the fans kept complaining online and on the radio? Why wasn’t anyone enjoying this - sure the 15-20,000 fans had fun at the fame, but as soon as it was over the whining continued. Let Kazmir pitch more, take Troy Percival behind the shed and shoot him, for God’s sake why won’t Maddon call a bunt!

On the other side of the spectrum was the team itself. They elevated fun to a new level for a ball club A stark contract to the business-like Yankees dynasty of the late 90’s. After all it’s hard to picture Paul O’Neil bouncing around in the dugout with a Mohawk after another late inning win. They seemed to be a throwback to the old clubs that grandfathers like to talk about, the Gashouse Gang, The A’s of the 70’s and the Bronx Zoo Yankees.

Watching the team throughout the season has led me to realize a few things.

1. Pitching and defense wins games. It’s a cliché, but a valid one. A strengthened bullpen with Dan Wheeler and the resurgent Grant Balfour as well as adding Matt Garza to the rotation allowed the team to vault past the other mediocre teams in the division. The defensive play, led up the middle by Jason Bartlett, Aki! And BJ Upton prevented them from giving extra outs to the Red Sox and Yankees helping to prevent big innings.

Building a team through pitching and defense is also cheaper than building a team around offense. Chicks might dig the long ball, but cost conscious owners don’t dig signing those checks. See the failed Hit Show experiment as to why offense isn’t always the way to go.

2. Chemistry does matter. As I touched on briefly this earlier, but the team does really enjoy playing together. Whether it’s the Mohawks, or boxing robes for Jon Gomes or the scraggily beards in support of Rocco this team is here for more than a paycheck. California Joe is the perfect leader for this group of kids. He let’s them run amok just enough to find out what their limits are, but also knows when to put a firm foot down.

3. There is a definite ace on the team and his name isn’t Scott Kazmir. I like Kazmir, I think he has tremendous ability, but he hasn’t harnessed it yet. Until he can work out of the 5th inning he can’t be the leader of the staff. Matt Garza has the most electric stuff on the staff, but inconsistency is his cross to bear. He could throw a no hitter or not last through the first. Andy Sonnanstine led the teams with wins for most of the season and was invaluable in eating up innings through out the season, but he’s…well…he’s Andy Sonnanstine - Mike Boddicker version 2.0. Ed Jackson is much like Garza and Kazmir - a raw talent who hasn’t learned the art of pitching yet.

That leaves one person. Big Game James. Going into the playoffs he is the undisputed ace of the staff. The game that sealed the deal - game one of the double header against Baltimore. On a day when they needed a pitcher to give them some innings he went out and gave them seven strong. Thirty-two starts and 214 innings averages out to almost 7 innings a start. Compare that to 27 starts and 152 innings for Kazmir. That’s a full inning less that Shields. Going into the playoffs the Rays are going to need to keep the bullpen fresh. If Shields can give them 2-3 starts of 7 innings or more then it saves the bullpen for games when they’re needed (I.E. Kazmir’s starts).

In the next few days the Rays will clinch their first division title. They will celebrate, there will be swimming goggles and champagne. Then the critics will come out and poke little holes in the team and come up with reasons why they won’t advance. Let’s leave that for later. For now enjoy what has transgressed from April to September. From Kazmir’s seemingly ridicules playoff prediction in spring training to the proliferation of 9=8 t-shirts. From 0-14 in the minors to presumptive Rookie of the Year for Evan Longoria. From Class A to the show for David Price. It’s been a wild ride.