Mullets, Melrose and Merry Times are Here!

It’s been quite the busy week for the Lightning. New owners, new coaches, new contracts and exciting new talent. The impact of all these changes won’t be determined for at least another 3 months when training camp starts, but it‘s nice to be talking about hockey in June. As an organization there hasn’t been this much of an overhaul since the Art Williams’ days. Not that anyone ever wants to recall those dark days.

One thing has been determined right away. The guys at OK Hockey are going to be hands-on owners. After years of the Davidson Group spending most of the hockey season in Detroit it will be interesting to see how the area reacts to owners that want to dabble in their investment. As early as the trade deadline there were rumors of Oren and Len talking with other teams about players without Jay Feaster’s involvement.

With Barry Melrose replacing John Tortorella and former agent Brian Lawton taking over for Bill Barber as VP of Hockey Operations it must be feeling kind of lonely for Mr. Feaster. New owners have a tendency to want to bring their guys in to run the show and even though they’ve supported him so far it wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see Feaster leave the organization within a year.

I’ll spare you the mullet jokes and the hate filled tirade against Melrose. I’m not sure why fans are getting as fired up about this as they are. Would they rather see Mike Keenan in here? He always gets along so well with his player, doesn’t he? The fact that Melrose hasn’t coached in over a decade could be a good thing. He may bring something new to the table. He doesn’t like the trap, wants to out work other teams and acknowledges the importance of a goalie. Sounds like an ok coach to me. It doesn’t seem that long ago that people were bemoaning the fact that the Lightning had hired some guy with no NHL head coach experience. That guy - John Tortorella and that seemed to work out alright.

Melrose will be able to build his team, a team which he said could be quite different from the one that took the ice last season, around young Vincent Lecavalier. Despite the fact he’s been in the NHL for a decade, Vinny is still only 28 so signing him to a nine year deal isn’t that bad of an idea. With his physical conditioning it isn’t a stretch to see him playing into his 40’s. Based on the preliminary numbers being thrown out there by TSN.ca ($8.6 million per year) he’s really only making a little more than a million more than he did last year.

The deal isn’t too bad and it’ll look even better when someone signs Marion Hossa to a similar deal. The same Hossa who has never scored 50 goals and is a year older than young Vinny. Lecavalier, as a center, is inherently more valuable to the team as well. He makes other players around him better whereas a winger such as Hossa needs somebody setting him up. My best guess is that Hossa ends up in New York, especially if Jagr plays in Europe.

Another free agent name getting a lot of play in the TBA blog-o-spheres is Ryan Malone. He’s big (6’4”), he’s a left winger and he’s racked up 20 goals or more in 3 of his 4 seasons in the NHL. The only problem - he’s going to be expensive. A GM would probably have to spend around $5 million a season for several years to lock up his services. Malone will be able to play several suitors off of each other - a scenario that almost always leads to a team spending too much money.

While the team promised to be active in free agency, aggressive is the word they used I believe, I don’t think Malone is a good fit. We’ll explore free agents more after July 1.

In short and with the exception of talking about Steven Stamkos, who I hope everyone has seen by now, that’s what the Bolts have been up to lately. The climb to the top of the division has only begun. They’re out of the cellar.

Don't fear the Mulleted One - Off Season Lightning Notes

I know it’s been awhile since I’ve posted anything on this page. I haven’t forgotten about you my loyal reader. Certain factors have kept me from updating this site. Chief among them being laziness of course, but as I’ve mentioned before I don’t get paid for this. I don’t even force you kids to suffer through advertisements. So if I post with Bill Simmons like regularity please forgive me.

Initially this was going to be a post about the Rays and their recent success , but with my uncanny ability to alter the course of events with my posting I figured I would leave that until a losing streak occurs on its accord or the All-Star Break whichever comes first.

Instead let us take a journey through the offseason of my other favorite TBA team – the Lightning. After all, it can’t really get much worse. Even though the NHL is embroiled in the midway point of the regular season it seems like the Lightning’s season has been over for about 6 years now. Not making the playoffs is almost as bad as another lockout. The Bolts haven’t suited up since April 5th which, if you look at the positive, means they haven’t lost in almost two months.

In the meantime, however, they have managed to keep their name in the news. The back page of the news, but any press is good press, right? Let’s start with the positive. With an assist from former captain Dave Andreychuk the Bolts secured the number one pick in June’s draft. Unlike the Buc’s they’re not being cagey about who they’re drafting. Multiple billboards in the TBA are sporting a simple message - Seen Stamkos? – followed by a website (www.seenstamkos.com) which is filled with a few YouTube videos of the tremendously talented center. Who owns the website, well the Tampa Bay Lightning of course. So don’t go swimsuit shopping Drew Doughty you’re not getting drafted by the Bolts.

If Steve Stamkos represents the future of the team then the eminent signing of their first free agent (which can’t be officially completed until July 1st) represents a dip into their recent past. It appears the Lightning and Russian powerhouse Evgeny Artyukhin have put their differences aside and have agreed in principle to a two year deal to bring the bruising forward back to the black and blue. The current brass envisions a crash line of Artyukhin, Chris Gratton and Nick Tarnasky punishing foes next season. It’s an interesting idea and may be the first line in the history of hockey to go through a season without scoring a point.

Interesting doesn’t begin to describe the last few weeks of John Tortorella’s coaching life. During what should have been one of the highlights of his career, coaching Team USA in the World Championships, he managed to possibly talk his way out of his regular paying gig. At the end of April news leaked out that Torts had offered his resignation to Jay Feaster during their end of season meeting. The mild firestorm was stoked by our favorite radio personality, The Big Dog, who mentioned and reiterated, and repeated that the coach cancelled an interview with him the same day the news leaked out.

The Canadian papers fanned the flames a little more by writing that Torts was pretty much done it was just a matter of waiting for the sale to OK hockey to be completed. The kicker to that story was that Oren and the boys already have a replacement lined up. None other than the mulleted one himself – Barry Melrose. This has been greeted by a less than enthusiastic response from the Lightning faithful.

This is not good. Not many coaches survive once the “he’s getting fired” reports start hitting the rounds. All he needs now is the vote of confidence from Feaster and his fate will be sealed. Other than Melrose there are a couple other candidates available now, from in house (Mike Sullivan) to the recently unemployed (Joel Quinville and Ron Wilson). For the past two seasons quiet whispers have circulated in print and throughout the electronic ether that Coach has lost the team. I’m not sure how much of that is true, but it gives the new ownership a convenient out.
Injured players have been an issue for the last few years as well and have also played a prominent role in the off-season. No less than three key players have succumbed to the surgeon’s scalpel so far this spring. Vincent Lecavalier has had his shoulder worked on, Paul Ranger must have thought it was a cool surgery because he had the same one about a week after Vinny.

If that wasn’t enough Jeff Halpern, the post trade deadline points machine, was busy leading his country to glory in the World Championships when Canada’s Rick Nash and Brent Burns decided his knee ligaments needed to be rearranged. After the hit (which was legal) Halpern was left with a MCL sprain and a ruptured ACL. While I’m here I might as well mention that the No Limits Fun Factory (where I work) has had more ACL injuries than any workplace I have ever heard about. No less than 6 people that I personally know at that place have had their knees redone. Well back to the Lightning.

It’s not yet known if the three players will be ready by the time the puck is dropped in Prague next fall, but if they aren’t the Bolts are going to have reach pretty deep into a very shallow pool of minor league talent. So let’s look forward to the next 3 months of off-time and pray to the hockey gods that things look up from here.

The Lightning Win (finally)

Well it looks like the Bolts will have the number one pick overall come June. So by October Steve Stamkos should be skating on the number 2 line. Good for them, it's a nice shining moment for an otherwise dismal season.

It will be interesting to see what kind of team shows up in Brandon for next season's training camp. Stamkos will come with the hype that follows a number one draft pick. Vincent Lecavalier will be coming off major shoulder surgery and possibly wrist surgery. It seems the goalie job will be Mike Smith's to lose and Kari Ramo might be in Springfield.

It doesn't look like the Lightning will be super agressive in the free agent market, possibly their biggest acquistion will be a vetern backup goalie (think Olaf Kolzig). Their self imposed salary cap prevents them from being a bidder for the likes of Marion Hossa. Look for them to find a 5 or 6 d-man and a winger along the lines of Michelle Oullett.

Let me be one of the first to welcome Mr. Stamkos to the TBA -- prepare for the apathy!

How Eric Hinske could Ruin Evan Longoria's Career.

So what happens if Eric Hinske IS this year’s Carlos Pena? No one is talking about the consequences of Hinske making the everyday roster. We’re only a week into the season so it’s still too early to see if he will keep his average over .300, but so far he has looked solid as this year’s pick off the major league scrap heap. As a matter of fact, as I typed the last sentence he just drilled a single into right field off of Chien-Ming Wang to put runners on the corners with no one out.

The nDRO was criticized heavily for sending down prized super prospect Evan Longoria to begin the season. Their thinking was that it would be beneficial to Longoria (more at bats) and the team (delay his major league service saving them money long term). In the meantime the Rays would be able to hold court with the two headed dragon of Willy Aybar and Hinske.

Fans cried out in anguish on message boards across the vast internet wasteland. Even seasoned mainstream writers weren’t immune from the sexy prospect of the 23 year old starting the season with the big club. SI’s resident baseball guru Tom Veducci wrote, “Get him to the majors ASAP. The kid, polished and confident, looks as if he’s already been in the bigs 10 years”.

Well ok then. If a writer thinks it’s time for the Rays to call up the jewel in their top rated crop of future stars then let’s do it! From a quick look at his stats (11 at bats, 4 K’s and 0 hits) it appears the Rays may have made the right call. Hopefully, the demotion and his early struggles serve as a wake-up call. After spending all off season and Spring Training hearing how great he is and is going to be this could provide a little perspective.

Please don’t read this as a pile on Longoria post. He’s going to be good, really good when his time comes. Rather let’s give the Rays some credit for thinking long term. The easy call would have been to start the young kid on the roster. He didn’t embarrass himself in spring training and Aybar’s gimpy hamstring could have opened up a spot. The fans would have been happy; the press would be able to gush over the second coming of Mike Schmidt.

Andrew Friedman and his associates (Friedman and Associates – a new law firm?) stood firm with their decision. In comments to the St Pete Times he even acknowledged that they might be “erring on the side of caution” by sending him down. Of course they are and they should. The future Rays teams, the teams that fans insist will be competing for a title in 2010, must be built around the nucleus of Longoria, Crawford, Upton and their cadre of young arms.

If Longoria is called up to soon, loses his confidence and washes out of the majors then what happens? As unlikely as that scenario may be, it would be disastrous to the organization. The same fans who are calling for the bloody head of Friedman for not promoting him would promptly jump to the other side of the fence and blame him for destroying their new savior. More importantly the team will be missing a key component of their future. By keeping the slugger in Durham for a few months there is no long term damage.

On the other side of the coin there is the financial aspect. In the same article quoted above Friedman states that the financial aspect of sending Longoria down was “virtually irrelevant”. The unnamed interneters don’t buy that for one second. They see it as a ploy to keep the kid under Rays control for as long as and as cheap as possible. It’s still puzzling to hear people whine about the “cheap ownership” and how the “tightwads” are being unfair to the fans.

This current group has shown a willingness to spend money on the players that are important to the future of the team. How quickly the large contracts handed out to Carlos Pena and James Shields are forgotten. Feel free to criticize the past ownership about being a tight-fisted tyrannical crew ( I’m thinking specifically about Namoli making a band who was invited to play the National Anthem buy tickets to watch the game), but nothing the nDRO has done has indicated that they are willing to field a lesser team in order to save money.

Another thing to look at, in the long term this could actually cost the Rays more money. If they are unable to sign Longoria to a long term deal before he’s a free agent it would be better that he’s a free agent sooner rather than later. Why’s this you ask? Well when have you ever known the cost of free agents to go down from year to year? Signing the future All-Star to a big free agent deal in 2014 rather than 2013 could cost the Rays millions more over all.

Don’t believe it? Then let us turn back the clock to 2005. In April of that year a young Rays outfielder by the name of Carl Crawford inked a 6 year $32.5 million contract with the team. Everyone was happy. The team had locked up one of its stars and Crawford was being rewarded for his exemplary performance on the field. Even the fans were impressed by the commitment to the future shown by the new ownership. Now imagine how much more Crawford would have cost to lock up (or even in arbitration) if they had waited a year or so. Why’s that? Alfonso Soriano and Vernon Wells.

After the 2006 season Soriano (eight years $136 million) and Wells (seven years $126 million) drove up the cost of acquiring outfield talent. If he hadn’t signed his big deal the year before Crawford would have been in arbitration with the Rays, imagine how that would have turned out. Not well for the Rays especially with names like David Wright, Miguel Cabrera and Alex Rodriguez sharing Longoria’s position.
So fans, please relax. You’ll have plenty of time to enjoy Longoria’s heroics in the blue, white and yellow of the Rays. In the meantime enjoy the fact that your 2008 Rays are showing that they belong in the majors and just took two of three from the Yankees. If you have to get fired up about something go to an old standby – Jon Gomes not getting enough playing time.

My late preseason breakdown of YOUR Tampa Bay Rays

There is really not much I can add for a season preview that the national pundits haven’t already addressed. They’re young, they’re better than ever and they’re going to be tough to play. The always reliable preseason predictors have them winning between 79 and 89 games. They have the second coming of Tom Seaver (Scott Kazmir), Mike Schmidt (Evan Longoria) and Joe DiMaggio (B.J. Upton).

Reading the posts of the faceless commenters on various blogs would lead one to believe that anything less than .500 and a late season wild card chase would be a disappointment and cost them a chance of getting a new stadium on the waterfront. Of course they also think the DRO has personal vendettas against them as evidenced by the demotion of Longoria the wunderkind.

If they would take a deep breath and realize every little move isn’t life or depth they would realize that the club built is decidedly stronger than any Rays club ever assembled. They have speed, power, defense and depth. They have a bullpen that doesn’t rely on Brian Stokes or Chad Orvella. Carlos Pena could smash 40 homeruns and Upton could hit 30. Jimmy Shields could pitch 240 innings and garner 20 wins. Kazmir (if healthy, always add the “if healthy” when dealing with the slight lefty) could be a Cy Young candidate. Unfortunately they need all of that to happen to sniff 80 wins this year.

When it comes down to it they just play in too tough of a division right now to expect the 90 wins necessary to be talked about in the playoff hunt. New York, Boston and Toronto are better on paper Baltimore, despite their recent renovations, always plays the Rays tough. These are the facts and they are indisputable.
Luckily for you, me and the dog next door baseball doesn’t always rely on facts and logic. Despite the trend towards statistics and PECOTA’s there are still intangibles, or “what if’s” that affect the way a season unfolds.

What if Josh Beckett misses a few games against the Rays and they take advantage to sneak out a few wins against a team that has dominated them the last few seasons?

What if the Yankees young studs falter?

What if Toronto continues its lackluster 3rd place ways?

What if the Rays precautions pan out and Kazmir throws 200 injury free innings?

What if Pena doesn’t get weighed down by his huge contract and puts up another 40-some homeruns?

If the Rays have enough of those go there way wild card wouldn’t be out of reach. Looking back on what was just typed, those what if’s aren’t quite so farfetched.

Instead of my usual overall preseason prognostications let’s go with a position-by-position breakdown.

First Base

Carlos Pena

Last Season – 46 homeruns .282 average 121 RBI’s
2008 Prediction – 37 homeruns .269 average 120 RBI’s

His home run production should be down as pitchers around the league are better prepared for him. Other than Upton there really aren’t too many other every day home run threats in the lineup. However, don’t forget that he will basically have an extra month of at bats since he didn’t really work his way into the Rays line up until May last season.

His offense overshadows what might be his biggest asset this season – his defense. As he looks out into the infielder no one he sees was in the same place last season. Aki is learning a new position at 2nd, Jason Bartlett has had his ups and downs at short, and who knows what kind of defense is going to be played from the three-headed third base position. Pena will be key to keeping extra runners off the bases for the young pitching staff.

Second Base

Aki Iwamura

Last season – 7 homeruns .285 average 34 RBI’s
2008 Prediction – 12 homeruns .290 57 RBI’s

The Japanese import had his ups and downs last season and became a bit if a cult sensation (especially here). A couple of injuries derailed him a bit and kept him from getting into a comfortable groove. When healthy he has a knack (an Aki-Knack?) for scoring runs (82 Runs in 123 games) he could blossom into a nice table setter for a potentially potent Rays' lineup.

He has one game under his belt at 2nd base this season and has already drawn rave reviews. As naturally talented as he is it shouldn’t be a big adjustment and he should definitely be an upgrade over Brendan Harris and Josh Wilson. It will be a shame that one of his greatest assets, laser cannon like throwing arm, will not be displayed quite as much.

More tomorrow.

Hockey in June? Not in this town!

I hate to break this to you, but the Lightning is done. For my readers in Brooksville that’s done as in “dun”. There’s a better chance of Art Williams joining OK Hockey to buy the team then the Bolts making the playoffs. Wait, wait you say. As this goes to press they’re only 9 points out of the 8 seed and 8 points behind Carolina for the division lead and the number 3 seed. Why are you so negative they can still do it! You’re supposed to support the team!

Trust me I’d like nothing better than to drink the kool-aid, bang my ThunderStix and say that the Bolts can make a run. I’ve tried. I’ve put off writing this for 2 weeks now, but it’s time to face the facts. They’re in last place, not just in their division, but in the entire Eastern Conference. Not only that, but they’re next to last in the entire NHL. They’re 57 points are better than only the Los Angeles Kings.

Trust me I don’t want to be writing this article. In fact a part of me hopes this post will act an anti-jinx and the Bolts will go on a 15 game winning streak to vault into contention. It’s not going to happen. Every game seems to reinforce the point that this year’s Lightning is not the gritty, iron-willed scrappers of just a few seasons ago.

Fans and critics alike would love to think they still are, but they’re not. Simply put they can’t finish out games. They’re winning percentage when leading after 2 periods is a dismal .731, only the Florida Panthers are worse at .727 (maybe it’s the Florida humidity?) In the third period and overtime they’re being outscored 88 to 59. That’s not the Lightning Way.

There was a day when the Bolts won games in the third by breaking the wills of other teams. Their ferocious fore-check and puck hawking speed wore down other teams and allowed Tampa to steal games from “better squads”. This was the whole premise behind the pre-season sensation known as Camp Torturella. The Lightning were built to be the last team standing on the ice.

Even though they still have the potential to be one of the better skating teams in the league they are committing more lazy penalties in years past. Hooking, holding, tripping are all penalties committed by players that aren’t moving their feet or working hard enough to keep up with the opposing puck carriers.

On the flip side when Tampa has the puck they aren’t forcing other teams to commit infractions. In fact, they have a NHL low 211 power play opportunities. Bobby Taylor may moan about the inadequacies and injustices brought forth by the modern NHL referees and their lack of calls for the Lightning, but the fact remains if they don’t use their speed to their advantage then they aren’t going to get any calls for them.

The good news is that this couldn’t happen at a better time. If the Bolts had hung on for another 2 weeks or so they’re chance to make lemonade out of this lemon of a season might be lost. With a week left before the trading deadline it’s pretty much an open house at the Ice Palace. With the exception of Vincent Lecavalier pretty much every one is fair game.

That means Marty St Louis, Vinny Prospal, Brad Richards, Johann Holmqvist and Dan Boyle could be skating in new uniforms very soon. Unfortunately, the most needed commodity (a number one goalie) probably isn’t going to be available. However, they do have a chance to restock what is now a barren farm system with viable young players and draft picks.

No fan wants to hear that kind of talk and it pains me to have to write it, but those are the facts and in the words of Smiling Jack Ross, “they are undisputed”. It’s time for the Bolts to rebuild this team. Loyalty to hero’s of the past can stunt a team’s ability to compete. The Lightning tried to build a team around 3 superstar offensive players. It wasn’t a bad idea in Today’s NHL.

Too bad it didn’t work.

Baseball is Back!

What a great day. A bright blue, cloudless sky, 70 degrees and the sound of baseballs snapping into catchers’ mitts can mean only one thing. Spring training is back in St Pete. Since I had nothing better to do I wandered down to the Namoli complex to watch the Rays pitchers and catchers work out.

There is nothing more unlike a baseball game then a workout. Basically the pitchers were divided into three groups: one throwing in the bullpen, one working on fielding drills and one working on the most boring play in baseball – covering first base. Every 20 minutes or so the groups would rotate and once all three had completed the different stations they went to another field to run. Good times.

It’s the last season for the Rays to train at the Namoli Complex, a group of fields in St Pete that I happen to have played on at one time in my life. As a matter of fact, during the half season of adult baseball that I played in a few years ago I managed to give up a prodigious homerun on the very field the players were warming up on. Good times indeed.

I managed to snap off a couple of photos while Scott Kazmir and David Price’s group threw in the bullpen. They were joined by Jake McGee (slowly gaining popularity as the next great pitching prospect), Edwin Jackson and Trevor Miller. Miller, the old man of the group, seemed to be working on a couple of sidearm pitches while the young kids snapped the mitts rather briskly.

A large size group of fans offered their well informed opinions as they watched the players work out.

“Mike looks a lot smaller than the last time he was here…looks like he lost about 20 pounds…must have been on the juice.”

“Well he was here with Canseco.”

“Yup. Must have been on the juice.”

That was pretty much the most intelligent conversation I overheard. The guys who were criticizing Price’s location were priceless as well. Apparently to those professional scouts 10 pitches on the second day of training camp were enough to form an opinion on the Rays best pitching prospect. After hearing one of them complain about Jim Hickey for the 4th time I turned up the volume on my Ipod and went back to snapping photos.

After a hot dog and a Pepsi (nothing better on a warm Saturday afternoon at the ball yard) I wandered down to the players’ entrance where a group of about 10 fans stood waiting for autographs. Al Reyes signed for a few fans before heading into the clubhouse. It took another 15 or 20 minutes before the players started trickling by.

Matt Garza signed for most of the fans and took time to comment on the 2008 Topps card that he signed for me. Apparently he knew that was taken in Cleveland, based on the road uniform and his “bald haircut”. He seems to be happy to be on the team and looking forward to playing this year.

The autographer of the day was definitely James (Don’t Call me Jamie!) Shields. He started at one end and worked his way all the way down the line, signing for about 75 fans. John Jaso signed for everyone as well even taking the time to sign about 12 cards for one kid.

Scott Kazmir and David Price came by and signed a fair amount as well. Overall everyone was very respectful and didn’t ask for more than one auto’s per person.

Here’s hoping the Curse of the Autograph goes away this year. I walked away with signed cards of Kazmir, Shields, Paul and Garza. Jaso, Price and Chris Mason signed a blank sheet of paper that I might use for cut signatures down the line. The countdown begins, let’s see how many of them are still here in a year.


All in all a day well spent.