The O's Make a Trade.

It's been announced that the O's have acquired former Devil Ray/Astro/Red Sox/Dodger/ Cardinal infielder Julio Lugo for the always popular player to be named later. Chances are that player will be named Cash. To make room for Lugo, Michael Aubrey was designated for assignment.

I wish this was an April Fools joke; not because I think Lugo is washed up (he hit .280 with St Louis and Boston last season), but because this means Brian Roberts isn't as healthy as we're being told.

Roberts has struggled with a herniated disk in his lower back all spring and just returned to the everyday lineup. For the O's to pull in an experienced middle infielder this late in Spring Training means that they are worried that Roberts may miss significant time.

If they weren't concerned then they wouldn't have made the deal and stuck it out with Robert Andino and Ty Wigginton as their utility infielders. I don't see them carrying three spare infielders all season long so I'm guessing the light hitting Andino, who is out of minor league options, is the odd man out.

Lugo wanted out of St Louis when it was apparent he wasn't going to be a starter for the Cardinals. Could Lugo eventually beat out Cesar Izturis for the starting shortstop position? It's possible, but unlikely. The O's like Izturis' defense and feel that they have enough power in the lineup to make up for his below average offensive output.

Roberts has played in the last three games for the O's and is slowly playing his way into game shape. He states that he feels fine, but back problems, like hamstrings and sprained ankles, have a tendency to linger throughout the season. It could also affect the way Roberts plays the game. Will he be wanting to dive after ground balls or slide headfirst into second if it might cause the injury to flare up?

The longest tenured Oriole is a key part of the O's lineup. He is a steady leadoff hitter that sets the tempo for the power guys behind him. Buster Olney from ESPN points out that the O's open the season with 28 of 35 games against teams that had a winning record last season. Sixteen of their games in April are against American League East teams. If they aren't firing at all cylinders to start the season they could find themselves 10 games back by the time May 1st comes around.

Despite all of that doom and gloom there is some good news: The O's won't be spending a lot of money on Lugo. The Red Sox are paying all but $400,000 of Lugo's $8.6 million salary.

So they got that going for them.

The Beauty of Florida Afternoons in the Spring

It’s time to dust off the keyboard and get back on track. After a two week break I feel like posting again. With the weather finally warming in the TBA, thoughts are turning away from the ice rinks and towards the ball fields. The recent, dismal play of the Lightning also leads ones attention to the hope eternal that Spring Training provides.

In that vein I took a little trip to Sarasota last week. Being unemployed does tend to give one time to take little excursions like this. So into the Mini Cooper I hopped and drove across the Big Bridge. Guided by Mapquest (and delayed momentarily by my inability to discern left from right) I found myself at the new home of the Baltimore Orioles – Ed Smith Stadium.

I joined as assorted band of retirees, vacationers, young kids and work-dodgers for a 1.05pm tilt between the O’s and the Rays. Despite it being an official home game for the Baltimore nine, the crowd was decidedly pulling for the boys in blue.

The O’s fielded a team of minor leaguers and on the bubble veterans while the Rays went with what should evolve into their starting nine. Young Chris Tillman took the mound against Jeff Neimann in a battle of future aces for the two second tier American League East clubs.

I lasted until the 6th inning, having to leave early to beat traffic at the home front. However, I did stay long enough to snap a few pictures.



Hey Tom Foley – How goes it?



The Once and Future Shortstop?




Jim Palmer, the Hall of Fame PITCHER, discusses the finer parts of HITTING with Papa Joe Maddon and Dave Martinez.




"Cakes" still has it. Actually, I think he bounced this one in.



Evan Longoria awaits a pitch. He would rip the next one into the gap for a run scoring double.



Cla Merideth delivers one from the side.




Longo had a good day in the field as well, making a nice play on an attempted bunt by rookie (and recently demoted) outfielder Matt Angle.




BJ Upton dives back into the bag on an attempted pick off.


The Orioles were unsuccessful in their quest for victory. I, however, was successful in my quest to enjoy the weather and a little bit of baseball.

Holy Crap a Baseball Related Post!

Hey Rays fans, spring training is right around the corner. Good news on this rainy Friday, eh? Also making the good news department - it looks like the Rays will finally be represented by McFarlane sports. An Evan Longoria figure will be included in the next release. Click here for preview photos.


They are sceduled for a May 2010 release.

Quick Hits Monday Night Football Edition

- The Lightning Weekly Roundup is postponed until I can think of something good to say about the team. After watching Monday's game against the Caps it might be awhile.

- Why would the Rays trade one bad contract (Pat Burrell) for another (Milton Bradley)? Throw in Bradley's on the field antics and the fact that the Rays would be on the hook for two more years instead of just one for Burrell and it becomes even more puzzling. Even if the Cubs picked up 70% of the contract the headaches that come with the Bradley would not be worth it.

- That being said, I would have to consider the rumoured BJ Upton and Wade Davis for Roy Holladay deal. I don't see the Blue Jays taking it but if it's on the table I think the Rays have to do it. Picking up one of the elite starters in the league immediately puts the Rays back into contention.

- The Ravens are done. As I'm typing this they are down 10 and Joe Flacco just threw his 2nd interception in as many passing attempts. There are just too many holes on this team (weak secondary, ineffective passing game, inability to make a stop on 3rd down, no big play receiver) to make a serious playoff run.

- If I get to be the O's GM this offseason I forget about big time names and sign Nick Johnson to a two year deal, Joe Crede to a one year deal, and make a run at Rich Harden. That gives you a year to develop the young corner players (Brandon Snyder and Josh Bell) and saves money for next year's much more attractive free agent crop.

And the Wheels Begin To Turn

It was announced today that the Rays made their second off season move today as they acquired Kelly Shoppach from the Indians for a player to be named later. Is this the first move to severing ties with incumbent Dioner Navarro?

The rotund backstop is elegible for arbitration, but the thinking around the blogs is that the Rays will now non-tender him and grant him his free agency. Last season was a major step back for the former Yankee super prospect as his average dipped 77 points from a career best .295 in 2008 to a career worst .218.

Preceding the season long slump was an arbitration hearing last season that the Rays won. Despite the claims that process was fair, it seemed that Navarro was bothered that the Rays didn't think his season was worth a $2.5 million pay day (the Rays won at $2.1 million).

So how does this compare to the Aki! deal earlier this winter? Well, for one I'm not outraged by it. I was never a fan of Navarro. He had a tendancy to have moments of sheer laziness on the field. I've never seen a major league catcher have as many passed balls on fastballs as Navi did last season.

While he does have a strong arm, Shoppach isn't that much of a drop off. Navarro threw out about 27% of would be base theives last season (22 out of 83) while Shoppach nailed 23% (15 out of 64). Their fielding percentages were almost identical (.994 for Navi to .992 for the new guy).

This isn't a case of the Rays dumping a veteran for a young prospect either. Navarro is actually a few years older than Shoppach. Nor is it a salary dump. There's a good chance that the right-handed hitting Shoppach will earn more this year than Navi.

Rather this is the nDRO realizing it's time to cut the strings with a player who rarely lived up to his potential.

Was it Over When the Germans Bombed Peal Harbor? aka the Rays are still in this thing!

Since we live in the age of the negative let us start with the bad news. The Rays aren’t going to repeat as American League East Champions. With just under forty games to go they aren’t in a position to make up the 10 games that separate the two teams in the standings. Luckily for the Rays they live in the age of the wild card.

That leads to the good news. Despite the impression you might get from listening to local radio, the Rays are still in the middle of the post season hunt. They took two out of three from the Rangers this weekend and closed the gap to two games behind the surprising ball club from Arlington. Both teams are still chasing Boston for the outright lead.

The Rays have a leg up in that chase as they have 6 games head to head with Boston while Texas has finished their season series with the Red Sox. Making up games is always easiest when you’re playing the team head to head. With the success that the Rays have had against Boston over the last two years it isn’t inconceivable that a 3-4 game lead can be erased within a week.

All season long fans and radio hosts have bashed the Rays to the point where one would assume the team was on pace for another 100 loss season. Why all of the hate? Well one thing you must understand about the TBA (that’s Tampa Bay Area for you new readers) is that if the team isn’t first it might as well be last.

The flip side is if the team is in last (which happens quite a bit around these parts) all the fans want is for the team to be competitive. Of course, by competitive they mean in first place. Have the Rays struggled at times this year? Definitely. Does that mean we should spew venom over the air waves and question their integrity on a day to day basis? Definitely not.

Fans let me tell you - it’s not embarrassing to cheer for a team that doesn’t end up in first place. After all, only one team gets to hoist the trophy at the end of the year. Cheer for them when they win and cheer for them when they lose. Ninety nine percent of your life is going to be spent supporting a team that doesn’t win it all.

Besides, where’s the fun in cheering only when they win? That’s like putting together a 15 piece puzzle. Sure you get the pride in putting it together, but where’s the challenge? It’s not like the Rays are a losing team this year. They are on pace to win 88 games. For those of you who have been here longer than a season and a half wouldn’t that have sounded grand in 2007 (66 wins), 2006 (61 wins) or 2005 (67 wins).

The Rays have stayed in the chase despite sub par seasons from their top two pitchers, Scott Kazmir and James Shields, and rough years from BJ Upton and Dioner Navarro. Luckily those struggles have been off-set by career years from Jason Bartlett and Jeff Niemann, not to mention the reemergence of Carl Crawford.

What happens if Kazmir continues his recent success and Shields starts getting some run support? The Rays start putting together 5 and 6 game winning streaks, that’s what happens. It’s better for your team to be hot in September than in April. Remember all of the complaining about resting starters in April and May - well this is why Maddon did it. So that his team is the freshest when the games mean the most.

The Yankees are clear and gone, but the Red Sox are still vulnerable. A strong finish and the Rays can nip the Sox at the wire. So let us turn those frowns upside down. Let us hear some Joe Maddon-ish optimism out there. I’m hoping the black hair dye catches on like the Ray-Hawk, I would find it amusing if the Trop was packed with 60 year olds looking like Death Cab-listening emo’s.

So when I tune in the radio tomorrow I want to hear some positive thoughts out there. Don’t back down to the radio tough guys and their negativity, because to paraphrase Jackie DeShannon, what the world needs now is positivity sweet positivity. It truly is the one thing that there’s just too little of.

Good day in Baltimore.....

According to the Brett Hollander show that I'm listening to online, Derrick Mason is going to report to the Ravens tomorrow. His retirement is over.

I'm not too surprised by this. I had a feeling that Mason was rattled by Steve McNair's death and didn't know what he wanted to do. After taking a couple of weeks to think about it he must have realized he still had some gas in the tank.

That's pretty good news for the Ravens who would have been staring at a huge hole in their receiving corps if Mason had stayed retired. He's not going to light up the scoreboard with touchdowns, but he abilty to get open and extend drives by making receptions on 3rd down is key to the Ravens offense.

Also, the same show is reporting that Andy McPhail is debating whether or not to bring up pitching phenom Brian Matusz. With Brad Bergesen on the DL the O's are short a starter and it appears they want to take at the young right hander.

The 22-year-old has dominated AA going 7-0 in his seven starts. The left-hander's ERA is an absurd 1.59 and has struck out 45 hitters while only walking 10.

If he is called up then that would make the O's 3 for 3 in calling up their top prospects this season. Baseball America had Matusz ranked third behind Matt Wieters and Chris Tillman.

Looks like O's fans get a glimpse of the future a little sooner than expected.

Trade Deadline Rant to begin in 3...2....1...

Alright, perhaps the solution to my problem is to stop listening to talk radio. I’m sure that will keep my blood pressure lower. Forgive me this rant for I am normally a pretty laid back guy. Some might even say a little too laid back, but when I listen to some of the radio hosts and their callers it get’s under my skin.

Yesterday I actually yelled at my radio - loudly. It’s not something I’m proud of and I’m glad I was in the call by myself. Perhaps I should hook my Sirius back up for some nice commercial free music.

So what’s prompting these out of character explosions of emotion? Well Rays fans of course. It’s the trading deadline. The Rays are currently on the outside looking in as far as the playoff races go. That means “Rays Fan” (I.e. the ones who thought they traded Aubrey Huff for Aki!) get to bitch and moan about the team.

All day I’ve heard, from both the radio hosts and the callers, that the Rays have to make a move or the season is done. The problem is - the Rays already made their deadline deal. His name is Pat Burrell. They just did it January instead of July.

Once they inked the deal Stu Sternberg and the rest of nDRO made it clear that they were maxed out in the payroll department. According to a St Pete Times article from April the Rays have raised their payroll over 160% in the last two seasons.

If you had told me in 2007 that the Rays would bump their payroll to $62 million by 2009 I would have laughed at you and then asked what city they had moved to. Let’s get it through everyone’s head that they are maxed out.

I’ve written about it before, if the Rays shell out big money on free agents they can’t afford to make mistakes. I hesitate to call the Burrell signing a failure as of right now. I will say it’s not working out, but you can’t call it a failure until it’s over. Who’s to say Burrell doesn’t bang out 15-20 home runs over the next two months and leads the Rays to an amazing comeback?

What I’m trying to say is that yelling about something that you knew was going to happen is pointless. If I tell you for 8 months that I’m not getting you a pony for Christmas and I don’t get you a pony, why would yell at me?

All I’ve heard for the last 5 or 6 years is “we want the Rays to be competitive”. Well guess what, they are competitive! They are eight games over .500 and still in the hunt for the wild card. Now all I hear is that they’re not willing to spend enough to go the extra step. I suppose that’s easy to say when you’re not the one writing the check, but let’s be realistic. Small market teams like the Rays are always more likely to be sellers than buyers for the big names on the market.

Could they have offered Cleveland more than Boston did for Victor Martinez? Without a doubt. Guess what happens if they do. Carl Crawford gets traded or his option isn’t picked up in the off-season. So then you’re looking at losing whatever prospects they traded and Crawford for Martinez and his $7 Million option for next season.

Also, this organization is built on sustained competitiveness. They didn’t sell out the franchise last year when they were leading the division and they didn’t do it this year when they’re 4.5 games out of the wild card.

The Rays spent 10 years stockpiling their young talent, and it seems this team is more than willing to actually have these guys play for them. That’s in contrast to teams like the Red Sox or Mets who only seem to develop talent in order to trade it for established players.

There are weaknesses on this team (cough, cough Navarro), but not worth making a trade that could have sever repercussions somewhere down the line. The boys in the front office have proven that they know what they’re doing so stop whining at the moves they do or do not make. Seriously, stop it! Go out and cheer for your team instead.

So everyone in the TBA just relax. Sometimes the best deal is the one you don’t make.

Let's Choose Door Number One in Let's Make a Deal!!!!!

George Sherrill is heading back to the west coast.

Andy McPhail traded Sherrill and his extremely flat bill to the Dodgers for third base prospect Josh Bell and right handed pitcher Steve Johnson.

Bell is a switch hitting power prospect whse swing can get a little long leading to strikeouts. It looks like he could be the replacement for Melvin Mora as rumours are circulating that the boys in the warehouse aren't going to pick up the father of eight.

Johnson is the son of former Oriole pitcher Davey Johnson (the pitcher not the second basemman). From what I can find out in my exhaustive (all of five minutes!) he can touch the low 90's and relies on a sinking fastball to get outs.

Sherrill was a bit of a cult favorite in Baltimore during his realitivly brief stay as the O's closer. However, it never seemed he was part of the future as his name was on the trading block almost constantly since his arrival from Seattle.

How well this trade turns out for the O's is yet to be determined. If Bell makes the roster next year and produces this could be a steal. For those quick to call it a bust remember that everyone thought Luke Scott was just a throw in for Tejada, that seems to have worked out well.

A little bit less than 24 hours to go, we'll see if anyone else follows Sherrill.

My leading candidates would be:

Huff
Baez
Hendrickson
Cla Meredith
Izturis

None of those names would garner much in return, but might provide some young pitching depth.

2010 Hall of Fame Inductees (sure it's early, but it makes up for missing 2009!)

And now I’m back, from outer space….well maybe not that far away, but pretty far from the nearest internet connection. I just spent a long weekend in upstate New York where my parents had rented a cabin on the water. No internet, a TV that had 18 channels (16 of which were PBS) and a paper whose sports section was awesome in its lack of coverage.

There were a few bonuses. I got to see my family (including my niece aka The Greatest Baby in the World) and got to spend a couple of late nights discussing sports, music and movies with my brother in law over copious amounts of beer. The beers of choice for this occasion were LaBatt Blue Light, and courtesy of my uncle lots of Bud Light and…shudder… Busch.

One of the topics discussed was the Hall of Fame. On a similar trip a few years ago the two of us drove over to Cooperstown to see Cal Ripken, Jr. inducted. It definitely ranked in the top five sports moments in my life and will probably be the last Oriole inducted for quite some time. We also agreed that we had to go back some day because we needed waaaaaayyyy more time to look at the exhibits.

During our discussion we talked about the next few years and who would be inducted. It wasn’t an in-depth, fact filled conversation. After all we didn’t have internet access (and did I mention the copious amounts of beer). In the end we agreed there were few sure-fire, first ballot hall of famers in the next few years which might have an interesting side effect - the induction of one or more suspected steroid users.

So for lack of anything else to write about, and to get a jump on next year’s talking heads I’m going to break down the next Hall of Fame class. For fun I’m going to break it down two ways:

1. Gut feeling. This is super unscientific. Looking at the eligible names I will just pull out the ones I think should be on based on what I remember about them.

2. Statistical Evidence. I will then take the players I picked and see if I can find some sort of evidence as to why they should be inducted other than the fact that they had a cool baseball card or seemed to kick the crap out of the O’s every time they played them.

I haven’t seen an official list so I’m basing the list of names I’m using on what I could scrounge up on the internet (I.e. Wikipedia). So here we go!

2010 Hall of Fame Ballot

First Time Eligible Players:

Paul Abbott, Roberto Alomar, Kevin Appier, Andy Ashby, Danny Bautista, Brian Boehringer, Darren Bragg, Dave Burba, Ellis Burks, Greg Colbrunn, Mike Fetters, Brook Fordyce, Andrés Galarraga, Karim Garcia, Tom Goodwin, Ricky Gutierrez, Jimmy Haynes, Pat Hentgen, Sterling Hitchcock, Mike Jackson, Eric Karros, Ray Lankford, Barry Larkin, Curt Leskanic, Josias Manzanillo, Edgar Martinez, Brent Mayne, Fred McGriff, Mark McLemore, Shane Reynolds, David Segui, Scott Service, Chris Stynes, Scott Sullivan, Todd Van Poppel, John Vander Wal, Robin Ventura, Fernando Viña, Turk Wendell and Todd Zeile.

Gut Feeling Inductees:

Roberto Alomar
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff

Please note nine of the first time eligible players played for the Orioles at some point in their career. Also, while Manzanillo might not make the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown he should be a first ballot inductee for the gruesome injury Hall of Fame. According to Wikipedia, “suffered a grisly injury while pitching for the Seattle Mariners. Not wearing a cup, he took a Manny Ramirez line drive to the groin that led to an operation to remove one of his testicles.”
Statistical Evidence:

Roberto Alomar - Simply put he was the best second baseman of the 90’s. He was in twelve straight All Star games and was awarded 10 Gold Gloves. Nine seasons he hit over .300 and in two of them he drove in 100 runs (1999 and 2001). During his prime he scored 100 runs six times and swiped at least 30 bases eight times.

Career wise he ended up with 2,724 hits and 504 doubles. Not known as a home run hitter he only had 215 in his career, but he did manage to swipe 474 bases. In the field he had a fielding percentage of .984 in his 17 seasons.

Those numbers should be good enough for a first ballot induction. As much as I would like to see him in the Hall as an Oriole it will probably be a Blue Jays hat on his plaque.

Barry Larkin - This could be more of gut feeling then any other guy I picked. He played forever and he played for one team. He seems like a nice guy. Other than Ozzie Smith he was probably the most recognizable National League shortstop in the early 90’s.

Let’s take a look at the numbers. Starting with awards and accolades: twelve All Star games, 4 Gold Gloves and an MVP title in 1995. Not too shabby, but not great. He hit .295 for his career, racking up 2,340 hits along the way. Only 198 home runs and 960 RBI during his 19 career season make it hard to justify him as one of the elites. Also, take into consideration that he never led the National League in any offensive category in any season.

Numbers that make up a very good career, but upon further review he doesn’t make it in on his first try. Maybe later on down the line.

Edgar Martinez - A most interesting case. There are two glaring facts that people like to bring up when his career is discussed - he played in obscurity in Seattle and he was just a DH. I say poppycock! After all he did play 563 games at third base in his career. Granted his .946 career fielding average isn’t garnering any Brooks Robinson comparisons, but at least he tried.

He was one of the elite right handed hitters in baseball during the 90’s. He never had 200 hits his detractors cry out! What about his .356 average in 1995 and his .343 average in 1992, I retort. In 2000 he drove in 145 runs and hit 37 home runs. He is a member of the 300 home run club and the 500 double club (309 and 514 respectively).

Let’s see who has 500 doubles and isn’t in the Hall of Fame:

Pete Rose (746) - banned
Craig Biggio (668) - not eligible
Barry Bonds (601) - not eligible
Luis Gonzalez (596) - active
Rafael Palmerio (585) - not eligible
Ivan Rodriguez (538) - active
Al Oliver (529) - didn’t have 300 home runs
Dave Parker (526) - Why isn’t he in the Hall?
Manny Ramirez (520) - active
Ken Griffey, Jr. (515) - active

That’s two eligible players that haven’t made it. I feel comfortable that the voters will do the right thing and vote him in. Bonus for voting him in - he would be the first player to done the Mariners’ cap on his plague.

Fred McGriff - The Crime Dog! All I have to say - 493 home runs. Everybody around him on that number has been voted in. He has been anointed as a “clean player” by those who have that power to anoint players as such. I will ignore that simply compare him to someone with similar numbers who is already in - Willie Stargell

McGriff vs. Stargell

Seasons 19 21
Hits 2490 2232
Home Runs 493 475
RBI 1550 1540
Average .284 .282
Stolen Bases 72 17

It seems cut and dried to me. The only question should be under what hat is he inducted. There is an outside chance he goes in as a Ray, but I have a feeling it will be the Braves or Blue Jays that get the nod.

So there we have it. On final review three first ballot hall of famers get in next year. That’s bad news for the holdovers like Mark McGwire and Andre Dawson. Perhaps in 2011 (maybe I’ll get around to doing that this week as well!).

Congrats to Mark Buehrle

Sweet Jesus, I leave town for a long weekend and the Rays get shut out, no wait they got no hit, no wait they got perfected(?). I like that word. Congrats Mark Buehrle. No one wants to see a team they follow on the wrong end of a perfect game, but you have to tip your cap to him.

update 7/28/09...Fixed the spelling of his name..so I can't spell real good...any disrespect to the Buerhle family and their ancestors was unintentional.

Card of the Year! Well last year....

So it’s a little late. About seven months late, but I figured better late than never. The idea well has been running a bit dry of late. Looking for a job is consuming a lot of online time and fixing up the condo has been taking care of the rest of it. New floor in the bedroom should be finished on Tuesday!

So without further adieu here it is:

The Tampa Sports Wasteland Card of the Year (2008)



B.J. Upton Upper Deck Masterpiece Captured On Canvas Auto


What’s not to like? A future All-Star/ Gold Glove winner/ Silver Slugger. A small piece of fabric. An on-card autograph. Its own built in frame! It’s cardboard perfection!

I picked this up from a box of 2008 Masterpiece that I bought late last year from Dave & Adam‘s Card World. While it’s not Carl Crawford, it’s just as good.

Young Melvin Emmanuel Upton (the B.J. comes from the nickname Bossman Jr his father being the original Bossman) had a rough regular season in 2008. He failed to improve on his 2007 season finishing with fewer home runs, RBI and total bases. He did lead the league in one category - he was thrown out trying to steal more than anyone else.

The talk shows and the cowbell fans couldn’t complain about him long enough or loud enough. He was lazy, he didn’t smile on the field, he didn’t run fast, he struck out too much, he walked too much, the list was endless. Of course plenty of people used the catch all “he sucks” without backing it up with anything.

All the while Upton kept his mouth closed. No longer was he the hot headed youngster who ran off at the mouth about his displeasure. When Joe Maddon benched him for lack of hustle he didn’t complain, “I didn’t run it out - but it’s over, done with, you move on. Learned a lesson”.

That’s what 2008 was for Upton. A 162 game learning lesson. He learned how to be an everyday player. He learned how to play centerfield. He learned the strike zone. It wasn’t until September that everyone learned that the former number one pick had been playing with a torn labrum in his left shoulder.

The pain wasn’t great but it altered his swing and sapped him of the power that had displayed itself in the 24 homeruns he hit in 2007. Since May he had dealt with the injury, with the boos and the negative comments from the fans. Never a peep, never a rant, never an outburst.

Then the playoffs came around. With no need to hold back, knowing that the season was almost over he let it go. The result, seven home runs and sixteen RBI in the three playoff series. The fans that had demanded that he be run out of town in July were embracing him with open arms in October. All was forgotten.

Off season surgery slowed the start to his 2009 season. The grumblings began again. Zero homeruns and a .177 average in April. He managed 2 homeruns and a .218 average in May. The angry fans returned. He needed to be benched, he was overrated, move him down in the order. A strong June quieted some of the voices, but will he manage to continue to improve?

One of the big questions is how this love/hate is going to affect his career with the Rays. When free agency comes a callin’ (after the 2012 season) he’s gonna get paid! Will the Rays offer the big bucks, even if they do will he accept it? As far back as 2006 he has mentioned that he wouldn’t mind playing on the same team as his brother, Justin.

What if he looks into the stands and sees all of the Pena, Kazmir and Longoria jerseys and decides that the TBA has enough superstars as it is? Does he say thanks, but no thanks and takes the money to play somewhere else? Does he take the time then to blast the fans for booing him, for turning on him when it was bad and then cheering him when he was winning games with his arm or his bat.

The good news is that those questions are for the future, for now I can enjoy the card as the best card I pulled in 2008. What does 2009 hold?

Get Ready for Musical Chairs - The Pitching Staff Medley

Despite a couple of losses to the Rockies it looks like the Rays are slowly righting their ship. Some of the walking wounded are coming back (Jason Bartlett looks like he hasn’t missed a beat), so is it time that they make their move? When last I wrote I mentioned that there was plenty of season left, and there still is, but Tampa Bay needs to make sure they keep the pressure on.

While they have managed to bring their record over .500 on the season they haven’t managed to gain any ground on the leaders. They are 6-4 in their last 10 games and have dropped a game to Boston. They now stand 6 games back. It’s not an insurmountable lead, but it would be nice to see them whittle that down to 2 or 3 bay the all star break.

One of the key components in helping them make a run returns soon when Scott Kazmir comes off of the DL. I would imagine he has one start in Durham before joining the big league roster. It’s not likely that he’ll be used out of the bullpen so one of the starters is going to have to go. Matt Garza and James Shields are secure. An argument can be made that Jeff Niemann has been their most effective starter over the last month or so.

So that leaves two candidates, the young phenom David Price or everyone’s favorite double jointed right hander, Andy Sonnanstine. When Price was called up all indications were that he was being called up for good. Many a young pitcher have been ruined by constant shuffling between the majors and minors Given the maturity he’s displayed so far that is unlikely, but no one can tell how players will react to demotions. He may be struggling (23 hits and 18 walks in 26 innings), but there have been flashes of improvement.

Sonnanstine is a bit more of an enigma. He has a bloated ERA of 6.65, but he is tied for second among starters in wins with 5. He’s been knocked out of games in the second inning (Baltimore) and the third (Cleveland), but he’s also pitched seven innings against the Yankees twice. His propensity to give up the long ball may be his undoing. He has given up 14 in just over 70 innings pitched. As the summer heats up the balls are going to keep flying out in visiting parks. Baltimore, Boston and New York aren’t friendly parks when it comes to pitchers keeping it on the right side of the fence.

So he loses his spot in the rotation. Does that mean he also loses his spot on the roster? How effective will he be coming out of the bullpen, and what role will he have? Lance Cormier has done a fine job as the long reliever and Andy doesn’t have the fastball that teams look for in a set up role. Which reliever is demoted. Chad Bradford isn’t far from returning either, that’s another roster spot. Joe Maddon certainly has a plan even if it’s not one that everyone agrees with. The joy of Maddon is that he always has plenty for the afternoon radio guys to discuss.

Kazmir needs to make sure he has everything straightened out as well. The team can’t afford for him to struggle coming out of the gate, having him only able to go 4 or 5 innings will put too much stress on an already beleaguered bullpen. Last year he was nothing short of amazing following his return from the DL, getting off to a 5-1 start. The Rays could use that type of performance if they want to claw back into this race.

Yes Virgina, There Will be Another 300 Game Winner

OK. Normally, I give the so-called experts the benefit of the doubt and acknowledge that they know what they’re talking about. However, over the last few weeks a certain proclamation has been spouting up on the internets and on TV. It is one sentence and it has been repeated ad nauseum – “We Will Never See Another 300 Game Winner”.

Really? Never, as in ever? That just smacks of hyperbole and sortsightedness. Is Randy Johnson the last 300 game winner that we will see for awhile? Yes, but to say that no one will ever do it in a major league uniform ever again is ridicules.

I find it humorous that the first person that the talking heads point to is Jamie Moyer as their proof that Johnson is the last pitcher that will make into the exclusive club. On the surface it may seem reasonable. After all, he is the next active leader in wins. The thing with Moyer is, well, he kind of sucked for a lot of years (15-35 from 1988-1991 and he didn’t pitch in 1992). It was so bad he even contemplated retirement. It’s a minor miracle that he got to 250 starts, let alone 250 wins.

What the naysayers are failing to take into consideration are the next generation of pitching stars that are beginning their careers or just entering their prime. Forcasting wins for young pitchers is a difficult thing because you never know what might trigger a decline in talant (see Willis, Dontrelle). Think back to 2001 when the Big Three in Oakland were setting the world on fire. Barry Zito is the only one pitching right now and despite some good outings he can't buy a win right now. Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson have battled injuries that have detailed potential hall of fame careers.

While major league history is rife with the failings and flameouts of can't miss winners there are two pitchers currently in the majors that have a more than average chance of reaching the hallowed ground of 300 wins - Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay.

Lincecum, the right-hander from San Francisco has already amassed 29 wins and he is a week shy of his 25th birthday. His teammate Johnson, who made his major league debut at the age of 24, had a total of 24 wins in his first three seasons. With about 2/3 of his 3rd season to go Lincecum has the edge in age and wins.


The young starter is most known for his rapid rise to the majors (less than a year from when he was drafted) and his twisting, whirlwind of a windup taught to him by his father. A former semi-pro player, Chris Lincecum studied the mechanics of pitching and taught his son the unique windup that helps the whip thin right hander generate a 98mph fastball.

His critics off that windup as a reason why he might not be able to continue his early excellence on the mound. It is a valid argument due to the degree of flexibility required in his unique wind up. As his body stiffens with age he might not be able to generate the amount of velocity as his body ages. At that point he would have to make the transition from power pitcher to one who relies on guile and experience.

Johnson’s period of domination ran from 1993 to 2002, in other words, from ages 29 to 39. He racked up an impressive 175 wins during that decade. That is even more impressive when you see that, due to injury, he only won 5 games in 1998.

That time frame coincides with most major league pitchers “figuring it out”. They no longer rely just on pure talent or ability, rather they learn how to work hitter, how to reduce pitch counts, and how to sustain a long career both physically and mentally.

A pitcher who is smack in the middle of that 29-39 age bracket is Toronto right-hander Roy Halladay. At 32 years old he is almost at the halfway mark with 140 wins as of the time this is being posted. Since the season he turned 29 (2006) he has 61 wins. He is on track for back to back 20 win season and seems to have put a lot of the arm troubles that plagues him early in his career behind him. He does have a lot of wear on his arm as he has logged more than 220 innings in a season 5 times. If he can stay healthy I wouldn’t be surprised to see him make a run at the supposedly untouchable number.

Something else that may factor into both of their chases is the fact that right now both pitchers play for some pretty bad teams. How many games have they left that their bullpens have blown? In today’s era of free agency it isn’t hard to imagine either one of them moving to a new team, a team with a better offense or bullpen that makes their lives easier. After all, Johnson played for some bad Seattle teams and Tom Glavine played for some bad Braves teams at the beginning of his career.

There are some unobtainable records out there (Cy Young’s 511 wins and 749 complete games come to mind), but another member of the 300 club will happen, just not for awhile.

This Friday....The World as We Know it Will Change

Matt Wieters is:

(a) God
(b) a switch-hitting catcher that Baltimore fans hope will be a cornerstone for a new Oriole dynasty
(c) an over-hyped prospect destined to fail in some critics eyes unless he wins the Rookie of the Year, MVP and triple crown
(d) a 23 year old kid from Goose Creek, South Carolina who may struggle from time to time as he adjusts to major league pitching
(e) all of the above
(f) all they above except a


So it’s time. The week began with a call up of one super-hyped prospect (David Price) and will end with the call up of young Mr. Wieters. The 2007 first round draft pick will join recent call ups Brad Bergesen, Nolan Reimold and Jason Berken Friday when he is scheduled to debut against the Detroit Tigers. If anything it should boost attendance for the last place club.

There was an argument that he could have made the club out of spring training. However, as Rays fans know from last year’s Evan Longoria saga, the extra month on the roster would have cost the O’s a year of control over Wieters thanks to the convoluted “Super 2” free agent / arbitration rules. Unlike Longoria I don’t foresee the young catcher signing a long term deal a week after he is called up. Why you ask? Scott Boras I would answer. The celebrity agent has made his feelings about long term deals prior to free agency well known.

Those conversations are best saved for discussions many years from now. Now we (O’s fans) get to see a line-up that has made us giddy thinking about it for over a year. A line up that includes Wieters, blossoming super star Adam Jones, old reliable Brian Roberts, Nick “the Greek God of Eutaw Street” Markakis and walk off superstar Reimold.

There really aren’t too many position players on the doorstep in the minors for the O’s so we’ll be seeing the players that will be making up the core of the team for the next few seasons. Following Wieters call up the only top 10 position player prospect left in the minors will be third baseman Billy Rowell. Aubrey Huff could be gone this season, used as trade material for more prospects. Melvin Mora, who is enjoying another steady season, will probably play out his contract and then Rowell should be ready to take over.

For Wieters, who signed a club record $6,000,000 bonus in 2007, the pressure will be immense. The days of a prospect getting called up and having a grace period with fans and critics are long gone. People will expect results from day one and won’t hesitate to call him a bust after his first 0-10 slump.

Not only will he have to worry about his hitting, he will also have to learn a pitching staff that is young. In the Detroit series the Oriole starters are David Hernandez, Brad Bergesen, Jeremy Guthrie, and Jason Berken. The combined number of major league starts for that quartet is 75 which isn’t bad until you see that 67 of those starts are by Guthrie. He will also have to deal with a Japanese pitcher with a limited grasp of English once Koji Uehara returns from the DL.

It will be interesting to see how he is used once he is called up. Will Dave Trembley throw him into the fire and have him as the number one catcher day in and day out? Will he spot start him against weaker pitching? Will he keep Gregg Zaun as his number one catcher, but have Wieters DH?

Based on early comments from GM Andy McPhail, the dynamic young hitter is being called up to play every day. “The line up is up to the manger, but we didn’t bring him up here to sit.” The GM told the Baltimore Sun on Wednesday. That’s all well and good in theory, but how long will his leash be. If he starts off 2-20 with 10 strikeouts does Trembley keep running him out there?

At this point in the season he might as well. Despite their thumping of the slumping Blue Jays this week the O’s are still mired in last place. With their young pitching staff, and the stiff competition they face within their own division, they will probably stay in last place for the rest of the season. Disappointing for the fans and the players, but at least all of the signs are pointing to the future.

No longer are the O’s struggling to finish fourth with aging, middle of the road free agent signings. No longer are they trying to compete with clubs like New York or Boston on the free agent market, instead they are adopting the build from within strategies that have proved productive for clubs like Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Oakland. Even the offer they made to Mark Teixeira in the off-season hinted at appeasing the fans. They knew he didn’t want to play here and they didn’t want to pay the amount of money it would have taken to sign him. Instead they used that money on Roberts and Markakis.

So I know it’s not in the nature of the internet generation, but give the kid a chance. Don’t judge him on one game or one week or even one month. See where he is after 50 games or so. I have a feeling you won’t be disappointed.

Oh and the answer to the question is (f). After all, everyone knows Clapton is God.

Let's Hold Off on That Hall of Fame Plaque For a Bit

Well, that went well, eh? Three and 1/3 innings, 5 walks, 100 pitches (57 strikes) and 2 runs allowed. That was the box score for David Price’s first start of 2009. There were some high notes - 6 strikeouts and hitting 98 mph on the gun. He did mix in a few change-ups which, at 86 mph were devastating when following one of his heaters.

Unfortunately, his inability to get ahead of hitters (he fell behind 10 of the 19 hitters that he faced) was his undoing. He wasn’t able to locate his fastball so he wasn’t able to set up his slider or change up. When you’re walking and striking out a lot of hitters you’re pitch count is going to build in a hurray. Add in a lot of full counts (6 in total) and Price’s start ended up being, well Kazmirian.

I’m not worried about Price. Despite his lack of control he showed that he belonged in the majors. I imagine he will settle down for his next start now that he will settle into a regular routine. I have a feeling he’s up to stay even when Kazmir makes his way back into the rotation,

As far as last night’s game it’s not the end of the world. They lost a game they should have won, there’s no need to lock the doors and declare the season over. They shouldn’t have won the game the week before when they were down by seven so as far as I’m concerned they’re even on the season. Over all they are five games back of the Red Sox with more than 4 months to go.

So is it time to panic yet? Not really. Even though they are 5 games back, none of the teams in front of them look unbeatable. The Yankees still have questions in their bullpen and the Red Sox have had their struggles as well. Toronto had a good start to the season when they were beating up on the AL Central and AL West. Now that they’re playing their own division they’ve dropped back to the pack.

The Rays have a few more games against Cleveland then games against Kansas City and Minnesota. If they win both of those series they’ll be right back into the thick of things. After that, the red hot Yankees and Angels loom - more stiff competition. They need to get their act together by then or else the season will really be in jeopardy.

So what do they need to do to get their act together? First string together some solid starts from their staff. Right now Matt Garza is their only reliable starter. With the rest of the staff (including Shields) struggling to get out of the fifth inning they are putting tremendous pressure on their bullpen. When that happens you end up with games like Monday night against the Indians.

BJ Upton needs to start hitting. The good news is that he is hitting 30 points higher in May than he was in April. The bad news is that he only hit .177 in April. The good news is that when he does get on he usually scores. Twenty-nine runs in 39 games isn’t that bad. Imagine what would happen if he gets his OBP up closer to his career average of .359.

With the loss of Aki! do you move him down to second in the line up? Common sense would dictate that Bartlett leads off when he returns to the lineup with Aki!’s replacement taking up a spot in the bottom of the lineup. Perhaps if Upton starts hitting with a runner on first he’ll focus on hitting to the right side which can only help his swing.

That being said, offense hasn’t been a problem with this year’s club. At least it hasn’t been this month. Carlos Pena , Jason Bartlett and Evan Longoria have carried the team this far. Now it’s time for Shields, Sonnanstine, Price and Jeff Neiman to step up. If the starters pick their game up then the bullpen will sort itself out.

If Bartlett goes on the 15 day DL then it looks like they are going to need their bench to step up. Does this mean Reid Brignac is the starter or do they go with Zobrist. While Zo-Rilla may be Mr. Dramatic this year it doesn’t translate into day-to-day performance. I believe they’ll go with Zobrist at short and Aybar at second for now. It’s too bad they couldn’t have held onto Adam Kennedy for another week or so.

They are 14 and 10 this month so there are signs that things are moving in the right direction. You have to remember that the season is a marathon not a sprint. It’s easy to rant and rave after a disastrous loss. You can criticize Maddon’s tactics from sitting starters to mixing and matching pitchers, but remember a manager should be judged on what happens over the whole season not over five games.

There were plenty of doubters last season that he proved wrong so he earns the benefit of the doubt. If resting Bartlett or Pena in April pays off with improved performance in September then I’ll take it. There is no doubt that by the time the Rays made it to the playoffs they were a tired team - the World Series is proof of that.

Maddon and Andrew Freidman are big picture thinkers. They do not scrap their plans based on one loss or being five games behind in May. They will look to fix a problem, but not at the expense of their over all plan. They won’t trade a prospect like Desmond Jennings for a rent-a-bullpen pitcher. The rest of the TBA may be clamoring for change, but they won’t bow to the pressure. That’s a good thing folks, if you don’t think it is take a look at the Lightning’s 2008-09 season. The Rays are going to win or loss with the players on the roster right now - don’t expect any blockbuster deals.

So lets see where this team is on June 5th when they start a series with the Yankees.


New feature - favorite local radio quotes!

5/26/09 - Steve Duemig “The only reason he’s (Joe Maddon) doing it this year is because it worked last year. Well BFD!”

That’s right Steve-O let’s not do anything that worked last year!

Run Carl RUN!!!!!

First of all, thank you to everyone who sent condolences on my recent career change. The search for what I want to do when I grow up is on and it will be interesting to see how it goes. Now back to regular programming.

This morning Mario over at Wax Heaven wrote a quick post on Carl Crawford and offered to his multitude of readers the question, “Do you think Carl Crawford will steal 100 bases this season?” Never one to miss an opportunity to expound on someone else’s idea I decided to borrow that post for mine. And by the way, if you’re into collecting make sure that Mario’s site is on your list of daily reads, no one in the business is more informed.

As for the main question, I believe that Crawford has the best chance in the last 20 years to break the century mark in stolen bases. He has so many positive factors going for him, the number one being that he seems to be 100% healthy for the first time in two seasons. Leg issues limited him to a career low of 25 steals last year.

This year he has been a demon on the base paths. Twenty steals in 29 games, highlighted by a 6 steal effort against Boston last weekend. The fact that he hasn’t been thrown out yet this season is almost as impressive as the number of bases he’s swiped. In fact several times he’s slid into second with nary a throw from the catcher.

So how is he going to do it? Well, first of all, he needs to keep getting on base. His OBP is currently at .374, more than 40 points higher than his career average. His .302 average is helping him get on base, but what is really helping is that he is walking more in his career than he ever has. Over his career he has 208 walks in 4185 plate appearances, averaging a walk every 20 at bats or so. This season he has 12 walks in 131 plate appearances, which breaks down to one every nine at bats.

It appears after 7 full seasons he is maturing as a hitter. Taking more walks makes him more of a threat then ever. In Crawford’s case a walk is almost as good as a double. He is hitting a respectable .256 against lefties this year, no longer trying to pull everything against southpaws. Several times this year we have seen him lay the bat on the ball and shoot a ground ball into left.

Blessed with above average speed he is also becoming a better base runner. Early in his career, he stole bases primarily with raw natural speed. Now he uses that speed along with his knowledge to a much greater effect. Even if a pitcher guess correctly and attempts a pickoff or a pitchout he has the speed to “outrun” the ball.

What about his adversary - the catcher? After all Jorge Posada is throwing out 35% of the runners who are stealing on him. Well sure, but Jason Varitek and Gregg Zaun are only throwing out 20% of their would be base stealers. The Toronto catchers are fairing a bit better nailing 25% of the runners. Crawford has a ton of games against his AL East rivals, thus a ton of opportunities to run wild.

Manager Joe Maddon has always stated the Crawford is one of the players that has the green light to steal in all situations. Three times this season Crawford has swiped third base. A risky proposition when he has Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena hitting behind him. After all, with his speed he will score from second as easily as he can score from third.

Speaking of Longoria and Pena, their hot starts is aiding Crawford’s quest for 100. Pitchers can’t afford to get behind to either of those hitters by pitching out. Plus with Crawford dancing around on the bases the pitchers’ attention are definitely divided. When a pitcher can’t focus entirely on the hitter he has a tendency to make bad pitches. Bad pitches tend to go pretty far off of the bats of Longo and Pena.

Crawford is third on the team with 17 runs scored which doesn’t seem like a high amount. However, he has scored six times in the last seven games, all games in which he has had a stolen base. You might wonder why he hasn’t been moved to the leadoff role, especially since BJ Upton is struggling so far this season. The leftfielder has mentioned in the past that he doesn’t like leading off, as a matter of fact he prefers to hit third. Also, Maddon is stubborn (or loyal depending on your point of view) and he is determined to let Upton fight his way out of the slump. I don’t disagree with him. Upton is showing signs of life and once he starts reaching base opponents will be faced with the dire possibility of facing both him and Crawford on the base paths.

Overall, does his proficiency on the base paths help or hurt the Rays? Some saber metric/ money ball experts will say that the stolen base doesn’t help a team out and that the risk isn’t worth the reward. I don’t know if I agree with that in Crawford’s case. He swipes bases at a greater than 80% success rate so it’s not like he’s getting thrown out every other attempt.

The Rays play an up-tempo game that is predicated on putting pressure on the defense. Stealing bases is key to that. For example, during Tuesday’s game against the Orioles Crawford stole second, a bad throw from Zaun allowed him to advance to third. While he was on his way to third, O’s centerfielder Adam Jones sailed a throw into the dugout and CC was able to waltz home. One pitch and a run scored. For a team that struggles to drive in runners from time to time it’s nice to be able to score without swinging the bat.

Crawford stole 5 bases in the teams first 15 games. Over that time the team was 6-9. With 15 steals in the next 14 games the Rays have gone 7-7. Coincidence? Possibly. The Rays have been getting more offense lately, and their bullpen has shown signs of life as well. However, you could make the argument that Houston native’s thievery could be sparking the recent improved play.

It is a long season, there are over 120 games left in the season. Playing on the turf, no matter how close to the real stuff it seems, is going to take a toll on Crawford. As the games become more meaningful, will he steal more or less? If he goes into a prolonged slump will he be able to get on base enough to attempt 100 steals?

The answers to those questions are going to be key in finding out if Crawford can be the first player since Vince Coleman to steal 100 bags. It will be a nice subplot to a season that has gotten off to a rocky start.

So it’s that time of year, two weeks into the season, for my pre-season baseball predictions. It’s now a three year tradition, a tradition that shows I’m really not that good at prognostication. How do we know I’m not good at this? Simply because at the end of the season I will dig up this post and review it. After all, unlike mainstream media I believe you should be held accountable for what you say or type.

By the way, as I’m typing this I’m watching game 6 of the Caps / Rangers playoff series. There is nothing better, and I do mean NOTHING better, than playoff hockey. Oh wait, there is something better. That would be playoff OVERTIME hockey. Who knows if the game will go to overtime, but if it does - then there is nothing better to watch. It’s true what they say, every shift, every shot counts. So I ask you - find VS on your cable box and watch a playoff game.

Enough procrastinating. Time for the predictions. As always, these are totally random with no rhyme or reason. I won’t predict Cy Youngs or World Series winners. If you need that go out and look online. There are people better qualified doing that, already.

Here we go:

Prediction Number One: No one will hit 50 Home Runs this year.

I wouldn’t say I’m going out on a limb here. After all, no one hit 50 last year. Heck Miguel Cabrara led the American League with only 37 last year. It was the first time since 2004 that no one in either league reached the 50 HR plateau.

I’m sure that the new steroid policy has something to do with it, but I think we’re seeing a return to the age of pitching. From Tim Lincecum to Johan Santana to James Shields and Jon Lester, both leagues are littered with talented young arms. Baseball is nothing if not cyclical. The era of the long ball seems to be in a decline and part of the reason may be teams focusing more on pitching and defense, because, as the Rays proved, you can make it pretty far for pretty cheap when you focus on those two things.

I happen to wholeheartedly approve of this trend. To me, the real game of baseball isn’t a three run home run, but a perfectly executed hit and run or a pitcher painting the black for a called third strike. I’d rather have a shortstop on my team that can catch 99% of the ground balls hit to him. Than one with stone hands that hits 37 home runs. That’s why I don’t mind the fact that the O’s traded Tejada last year and have relatively light hitting Cesar Izturis manning the position this year.

Prediction Number Two: CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett will both spend time on the DL this season.

Again, I like to keep things simple. Burnett is almost a no-brainer. In 2006 and 2007 he made a total of 4 trips to the DL and has had major injuries to both his elbow and shoulder. In 2008 (a contract year), he logged the most innings of his career (221.1). While some might say that means he’s “learned to stay healthy” I think it’s going to lead to problems this season.

Sabathia, is another story. He is a workhorse, never making less than 28 starts in his career, and throwing more than 200 innings three times in his career including an outstanding 253 innings last year. He hasn’t been on the DL since suffering an oblique stain in 2006.

That’s the good news, the bad news is that it’s about time for mother nature to catch up with him. He’ll turn 29 this year and the weight he carries has to start wearing on his arm sooner or later. He is generously listed at 290 pounds on mlb.com, but visual evidence says he is easily over 300lbs. Pitching in Yankee Stadium is going to be a little more pressure packed than Cleveland or Milwaukee. If he pushes himself harder (especially after his slow start) it wouldn’t be surprising to see him start to develop arm problems.

Of course none of that is going to matter for the Yankees if they don’t figure out what’s wrong with Chien Ming Wang.

Prediction Number 3: Someone is going to lay a beating on Josh Beckett

He managed to not miss a start after throwing at Bobby Abreu. Red Sox apologists can object all they want, but there is no doubt where that pitch was heading. He’s starting to spout a Roger Clemens-Lite attitude on the mound and sooner or later he’s going to buzz the wrong hitter and a melee will breakout and he’s going to be at the bottom of the pile with someone poking him in the eye and pulling his hair.

Prediction Number 4: Someone on the field is going to be hurt badly by a broken bat.

It’s only a matter of time. According to an article on mlb.com Major League baseball collected more than 1700 broken bats from major league games from July 2nd to the date the article was published (September 8th). That’s in less than ½ season!

The league needs to do something about this before a 3rd baseman has to field a ground ball with the barrel of a bat jammed into his neck. I’m not going to say I have a solution, but something has to be done. Surely there should be some testing into a synthetic material that has the properties of a wooden bat without the shattering that is occurring. After all, we can put a man on the moon, someone should be able to come up with this, right?

Oddly enough, as I was writing this article and looking up the above link I saw another story in which umpire Kerwin Danley suffered a concussion in last weeks’ Rangers / Blue Jays game when a shattered bat from Hank Blaylock struck him directly in the face mask. Several other links could be found talking about fans getting hit as well. However, it seems this is going to sit on the back burner until a player gets seriously harmed.

Let me offer a bit of an extreme comparison. I live on the Gulf Coast of Florida which means I don’t go more than a week or two about reading in the paper about a missing boater. Usually, it’s contained to an article 3 or 4 paragraphs long in the local section. Every once in a while there will be a follow up story about the boaters being found or the boat being found, but it’s usually not something that makes the actual newscasts.

Flash back to the end of February when NFL players Marquis Cooper, Will Bleakley, Corey Smith and Nick Schuyler went missing after launching from the Seminole Boat Ramp (which is about 5 miles from my palatial estates). All of sudden experts were sprouting up every where analyzing why this had happened, what they should have done differently, or how the search should have been conducted. Somber newscasters updated us every hour on the hour. Hundreds of people took to their own boats to find the missing boaters.

That’s all well and good, but why does it only get coverage when it’s someone quaso-famous? Why doesn’t the disappearance of a hard working family man warrant the same type of coverage? I feel it’s the same with the broken bat epidemic. As long as it’s an anonymous fan or umpire getting hurt no one will care.

However, should it happen to David Wright or Evan Longoria all hell is going to break loose. So why not dedicate the resources to it now. The players union and the owners should contribute equal amounts to something more than a random task force to find a solution.

I’ll get off my soapbox now and come up with at least one random team prediction. The team coming out of the NL West - San Francisco Giants. Other than the fact that I like their pitching I have absolutely no reason to believe why this should happen.

Tomorrow I may post some Rays specific predictions from my esteemed co-worker - Work Mike.

Always Late and Rarely Useful - The O's Season Preview

As of this writing the O’s are sitting at 5-2 in second place in the American League East. They have taken 2 of 3 from presumptive powerhouses Tampa and New York. They’re hitting .303 as a team. Their ace (c’mon you know who it is - Jeremy Gutherie) is 2-0 as is their hot Japanese import Koji Uehara. So why do I think they’re going to end up in 4th place by the time September rolls around?

Simply put - the pitching.

There is no way around it, this team will get as far as the pitching staff lets it. When you factor in that Mark Hendrickson and Adam Eaton compose 40% of the starting rotation - that means their not going to go too far. They are 5-2 with a team ERA over 6.00. That’s not exactly playoff material. Making things worse, they just lost Alfredo Simon, a promising young right-hander who claimed the 5th spot in the rotation out of spring training.

Guthrie is an interesting case. He may be one of the few “aces” that took a pay cut going into a season where the team knew he was going to be the number one starter. In 80 games (59 starts) with the O’s over three seasons he has amassed a 19-17 record. That is pretty consistent for a team that is 46 games below .500 in that same stretch.

Back to his contract. In 2008, Guthrie was playing under a one year contract that paid him $770,000 base on a deal he signed with Cleveland when he was drafted in 2002. According to The Baltimore Sun. going into 2009 the O’s had the right to cut his salary by 20% under the current labor agreement. The final deal he signed was for about $650,000 which is about 15% less than what he was making.

Only the O’s could find a way to pay their ace less despite him having a decent year. Of course if he continues his effective above .500 pitching he could be in for an AJ Burnett type deal in a few seasons. Meanwhile, he’ll be fighting the good fight while the O’s management grooms the next generation of starters.

Well sure, the starting pitching has some holes, but the bullpen is strong right? Well it could be. Chris Ray was a solid closer before he blew his arm out two seasons ago. How he rebounds has yet to be determined. If he is strong he could take over the closing role from George Sherrill, the lefty known as much for his comically flat-billed cap as he is for his prowess as a closer.

Getting from the starter to the closer will be an adventure based on a bullpen filled with names such as Danys Baez, Jim Johnson, Brian Bass, Dennis Sarafate, and Jamie Walker. With lackluster starting pitching these guys could be logging a ton of innings. I tend towards optimism when it comes to my teams and even I have to admit that there is a minor sense of trepidation when I see those names in print.

So while the pitching will be the weak spot, the offense will be explosive. Headlined by star in the making and the newest multi millionaire from Glen Cove, NY - Nick Markakis this team will put some runs on the board. They are solid in the 1-4 slots with Brian Roberts leading off, future All Star Adam Jones hitting second, Markakis third and Aubrey Huff in the cleanup sport.

Once you get past those four the production drops off a bit with the likes of Cesar Izturis and Greg Zaun hitting. It’s no secret that Zaun is just holding a spot until the club feels uber-prospect Matt Weiters is ready to don the orange and black. What Izturis lacks in offense he’ll make up for in defense.

A key spot in the lineup will be Melvin Mora. He has quietly provided solid offense from the third base spot over the last 7 seasons. He’s never hit less than 14 home runs or under .274. Another average year from him give the O’s 7 of 9 spots that could hit .300 with double digit home runs.

After years of wondering the baseball no man’s land - spending money like they’re the Yankees or Red Sox, but playing the Royals or Pirates the O’s management made a true rebuilding commitment last year. That rebuilding centered around strong, young pitching and locking up their good talent like Markakis.

Strengthing their defense has also been important, hence the off season signing of the slick fielding Izturis. In 2008, the Rays showed how improving your defense improves your pitching. The young pitchers that will start getting called up this season will only be helped by infielders that can turn the ground ball up the middle into an out instead of a base hit.

So to wrap things up the O’s should have the guns to compete in the AL East, but their lack of major league quality arms will be their undoing over the long season.

Quick Hits - Opening Day Edition

Yeah, yeah, yeah Opening Day was yesterday, but this site has never prided itself on promptness. After all, if I'm not mistaken I still owe my readers an O's preview and a list of predictions. Hopefully, by this weekend they will be posted.

In the meantime here are some random observations:

- I'm typing this as 10.38pm on Tuesday night. Thanks to the MLB Extra Innings free preview I'm watching the Dodgers vs Padres and that means I'm listening to the soothing tones of Vin Scully. There is no better announcer working today - I will not argue this, part of the reason I pay for the mlb tv online is so that I can listen to Dodger games late at night. The only reason I bought, "The Love of the Game" is because he is calling the Billy Chapel's historic last game (what you thought it was for Kevin Costner's realistic pitching motion?)

- The O's are in first. Hot Damn. 112 wins here they come! No matter what happens the rest of the year, at least the fans have that day.

- It's ok Rays fans. You can put the knives down, the season isn't over yet. It's just one loss. I know you're not used to this since you've only been following the team since August of last year, but it's going to be alright.

- The Lightning lost to the Penguins 6-4. At least they had the common courtesy to lose in regulation. It's been awhile since I've seen a team limp home like this. If the Lightning were a horse they would have been euthanized two weeks ago.

- I have two boxes of Hockey cards and a couple of packs of Topps Heritage on the way from Dave and Adam's Card World. I like this ordering online stuff. the last couple of visits to my local card shop have been less than overwhelming. Lack of inventory (still no Topps base product), lack of interest (the guy behind the desk was flipping through comic books for 5 minutes before acknowledging that I might want to buy something from him) and prices that aren't worth make me wonder if I'll even go back.

- Vin Scully just dropped the line "Like the music man, you have to know the territory". Fantastic.

- Tommorrow I will be boarding a US Air Flight to Wilmington, NC. My dad will pick me up at the airport and then we'll make the five hourish drive to Augusta, Georgia. Together we will attend the first round of the Masters on Thursday. After that we'll drive back to Wilmington for a quick round of golf on his home course before I catch a flight back to Tampa. Not a bad way to spend a couple of days - it sure beats sitting at a desk.

Enjoy the baseball folks.