How Eric Hinske could Ruin Evan Longoria's Career.

So what happens if Eric Hinske IS this year’s Carlos Pena? No one is talking about the consequences of Hinske making the everyday roster. We’re only a week into the season so it’s still too early to see if he will keep his average over .300, but so far he has looked solid as this year’s pick off the major league scrap heap. As a matter of fact, as I typed the last sentence he just drilled a single into right field off of Chien-Ming Wang to put runners on the corners with no one out.

The nDRO was criticized heavily for sending down prized super prospect Evan Longoria to begin the season. Their thinking was that it would be beneficial to Longoria (more at bats) and the team (delay his major league service saving them money long term). In the meantime the Rays would be able to hold court with the two headed dragon of Willy Aybar and Hinske.

Fans cried out in anguish on message boards across the vast internet wasteland. Even seasoned mainstream writers weren’t immune from the sexy prospect of the 23 year old starting the season with the big club. SI’s resident baseball guru Tom Veducci wrote, “Get him to the majors ASAP. The kid, polished and confident, looks as if he’s already been in the bigs 10 years”.

Well ok then. If a writer thinks it’s time for the Rays to call up the jewel in their top rated crop of future stars then let’s do it! From a quick look at his stats (11 at bats, 4 K’s and 0 hits) it appears the Rays may have made the right call. Hopefully, the demotion and his early struggles serve as a wake-up call. After spending all off season and Spring Training hearing how great he is and is going to be this could provide a little perspective.

Please don’t read this as a pile on Longoria post. He’s going to be good, really good when his time comes. Rather let’s give the Rays some credit for thinking long term. The easy call would have been to start the young kid on the roster. He didn’t embarrass himself in spring training and Aybar’s gimpy hamstring could have opened up a spot. The fans would have been happy; the press would be able to gush over the second coming of Mike Schmidt.

Andrew Friedman and his associates (Friedman and Associates – a new law firm?) stood firm with their decision. In comments to the St Pete Times he even acknowledged that they might be “erring on the side of caution” by sending him down. Of course they are and they should. The future Rays teams, the teams that fans insist will be competing for a title in 2010, must be built around the nucleus of Longoria, Crawford, Upton and their cadre of young arms.

If Longoria is called up to soon, loses his confidence and washes out of the majors then what happens? As unlikely as that scenario may be, it would be disastrous to the organization. The same fans who are calling for the bloody head of Friedman for not promoting him would promptly jump to the other side of the fence and blame him for destroying their new savior. More importantly the team will be missing a key component of their future. By keeping the slugger in Durham for a few months there is no long term damage.

On the other side of the coin there is the financial aspect. In the same article quoted above Friedman states that the financial aspect of sending Longoria down was “virtually irrelevant”. The unnamed interneters don’t buy that for one second. They see it as a ploy to keep the kid under Rays control for as long as and as cheap as possible. It’s still puzzling to hear people whine about the “cheap ownership” and how the “tightwads” are being unfair to the fans.

This current group has shown a willingness to spend money on the players that are important to the future of the team. How quickly the large contracts handed out to Carlos Pena and James Shields are forgotten. Feel free to criticize the past ownership about being a tight-fisted tyrannical crew ( I’m thinking specifically about Namoli making a band who was invited to play the National Anthem buy tickets to watch the game), but nothing the nDRO has done has indicated that they are willing to field a lesser team in order to save money.

Another thing to look at, in the long term this could actually cost the Rays more money. If they are unable to sign Longoria to a long term deal before he’s a free agent it would be better that he’s a free agent sooner rather than later. Why’s this you ask? Well when have you ever known the cost of free agents to go down from year to year? Signing the future All-Star to a big free agent deal in 2014 rather than 2013 could cost the Rays millions more over all.

Don’t believe it? Then let us turn back the clock to 2005. In April of that year a young Rays outfielder by the name of Carl Crawford inked a 6 year $32.5 million contract with the team. Everyone was happy. The team had locked up one of its stars and Crawford was being rewarded for his exemplary performance on the field. Even the fans were impressed by the commitment to the future shown by the new ownership. Now imagine how much more Crawford would have cost to lock up (or even in arbitration) if they had waited a year or so. Why’s that? Alfonso Soriano and Vernon Wells.

After the 2006 season Soriano (eight years $136 million) and Wells (seven years $126 million) drove up the cost of acquiring outfield talent. If he hadn’t signed his big deal the year before Crawford would have been in arbitration with the Rays, imagine how that would have turned out. Not well for the Rays especially with names like David Wright, Miguel Cabrera and Alex Rodriguez sharing Longoria’s position.
So fans, please relax. You’ll have plenty of time to enjoy Longoria’s heroics in the blue, white and yellow of the Rays. In the meantime enjoy the fact that your 2008 Rays are showing that they belong in the majors and just took two of three from the Yankees. If you have to get fired up about something go to an old standby – Jon Gomes not getting enough playing time.

My late preseason breakdown of YOUR Tampa Bay Rays

There is really not much I can add for a season preview that the national pundits haven’t already addressed. They’re young, they’re better than ever and they’re going to be tough to play. The always reliable preseason predictors have them winning between 79 and 89 games. They have the second coming of Tom Seaver (Scott Kazmir), Mike Schmidt (Evan Longoria) and Joe DiMaggio (B.J. Upton).

Reading the posts of the faceless commenters on various blogs would lead one to believe that anything less than .500 and a late season wild card chase would be a disappointment and cost them a chance of getting a new stadium on the waterfront. Of course they also think the DRO has personal vendettas against them as evidenced by the demotion of Longoria the wunderkind.

If they would take a deep breath and realize every little move isn’t life or depth they would realize that the club built is decidedly stronger than any Rays club ever assembled. They have speed, power, defense and depth. They have a bullpen that doesn’t rely on Brian Stokes or Chad Orvella. Carlos Pena could smash 40 homeruns and Upton could hit 30. Jimmy Shields could pitch 240 innings and garner 20 wins. Kazmir (if healthy, always add the “if healthy” when dealing with the slight lefty) could be a Cy Young candidate. Unfortunately they need all of that to happen to sniff 80 wins this year.

When it comes down to it they just play in too tough of a division right now to expect the 90 wins necessary to be talked about in the playoff hunt. New York, Boston and Toronto are better on paper Baltimore, despite their recent renovations, always plays the Rays tough. These are the facts and they are indisputable.
Luckily for you, me and the dog next door baseball doesn’t always rely on facts and logic. Despite the trend towards statistics and PECOTA’s there are still intangibles, or “what if’s” that affect the way a season unfolds.

What if Josh Beckett misses a few games against the Rays and they take advantage to sneak out a few wins against a team that has dominated them the last few seasons?

What if the Yankees young studs falter?

What if Toronto continues its lackluster 3rd place ways?

What if the Rays precautions pan out and Kazmir throws 200 injury free innings?

What if Pena doesn’t get weighed down by his huge contract and puts up another 40-some homeruns?

If the Rays have enough of those go there way wild card wouldn’t be out of reach. Looking back on what was just typed, those what if’s aren’t quite so farfetched.

Instead of my usual overall preseason prognostications let’s go with a position-by-position breakdown.

First Base

Carlos Pena

Last Season – 46 homeruns .282 average 121 RBI’s
2008 Prediction – 37 homeruns .269 average 120 RBI’s

His home run production should be down as pitchers around the league are better prepared for him. Other than Upton there really aren’t too many other every day home run threats in the lineup. However, don’t forget that he will basically have an extra month of at bats since he didn’t really work his way into the Rays line up until May last season.

His offense overshadows what might be his biggest asset this season – his defense. As he looks out into the infielder no one he sees was in the same place last season. Aki is learning a new position at 2nd, Jason Bartlett has had his ups and downs at short, and who knows what kind of defense is going to be played from the three-headed third base position. Pena will be key to keeping extra runners off the bases for the young pitching staff.

Second Base

Aki Iwamura

Last season – 7 homeruns .285 average 34 RBI’s
2008 Prediction – 12 homeruns .290 57 RBI’s

The Japanese import had his ups and downs last season and became a bit if a cult sensation (especially here). A couple of injuries derailed him a bit and kept him from getting into a comfortable groove. When healthy he has a knack (an Aki-Knack?) for scoring runs (82 Runs in 123 games) he could blossom into a nice table setter for a potentially potent Rays' lineup.

He has one game under his belt at 2nd base this season and has already drawn rave reviews. As naturally talented as he is it shouldn’t be a big adjustment and he should definitely be an upgrade over Brendan Harris and Josh Wilson. It will be a shame that one of his greatest assets, laser cannon like throwing arm, will not be displayed quite as much.

More tomorrow.

Hockey in June? Not in this town!

I hate to break this to you, but the Lightning is done. For my readers in Brooksville that’s done as in “dun”. There’s a better chance of Art Williams joining OK Hockey to buy the team then the Bolts making the playoffs. Wait, wait you say. As this goes to press they’re only 9 points out of the 8 seed and 8 points behind Carolina for the division lead and the number 3 seed. Why are you so negative they can still do it! You’re supposed to support the team!

Trust me I’d like nothing better than to drink the kool-aid, bang my ThunderStix and say that the Bolts can make a run. I’ve tried. I’ve put off writing this for 2 weeks now, but it’s time to face the facts. They’re in last place, not just in their division, but in the entire Eastern Conference. Not only that, but they’re next to last in the entire NHL. They’re 57 points are better than only the Los Angeles Kings.

Trust me I don’t want to be writing this article. In fact a part of me hopes this post will act an anti-jinx and the Bolts will go on a 15 game winning streak to vault into contention. It’s not going to happen. Every game seems to reinforce the point that this year’s Lightning is not the gritty, iron-willed scrappers of just a few seasons ago.

Fans and critics alike would love to think they still are, but they’re not. Simply put they can’t finish out games. They’re winning percentage when leading after 2 periods is a dismal .731, only the Florida Panthers are worse at .727 (maybe it’s the Florida humidity?) In the third period and overtime they’re being outscored 88 to 59. That’s not the Lightning Way.

There was a day when the Bolts won games in the third by breaking the wills of other teams. Their ferocious fore-check and puck hawking speed wore down other teams and allowed Tampa to steal games from “better squads”. This was the whole premise behind the pre-season sensation known as Camp Torturella. The Lightning were built to be the last team standing on the ice.

Even though they still have the potential to be one of the better skating teams in the league they are committing more lazy penalties in years past. Hooking, holding, tripping are all penalties committed by players that aren’t moving their feet or working hard enough to keep up with the opposing puck carriers.

On the flip side when Tampa has the puck they aren’t forcing other teams to commit infractions. In fact, they have a NHL low 211 power play opportunities. Bobby Taylor may moan about the inadequacies and injustices brought forth by the modern NHL referees and their lack of calls for the Lightning, but the fact remains if they don’t use their speed to their advantage then they aren’t going to get any calls for them.

The good news is that this couldn’t happen at a better time. If the Bolts had hung on for another 2 weeks or so they’re chance to make lemonade out of this lemon of a season might be lost. With a week left before the trading deadline it’s pretty much an open house at the Ice Palace. With the exception of Vincent Lecavalier pretty much every one is fair game.

That means Marty St Louis, Vinny Prospal, Brad Richards, Johann Holmqvist and Dan Boyle could be skating in new uniforms very soon. Unfortunately, the most needed commodity (a number one goalie) probably isn’t going to be available. However, they do have a chance to restock what is now a barren farm system with viable young players and draft picks.

No fan wants to hear that kind of talk and it pains me to have to write it, but those are the facts and in the words of Smiling Jack Ross, “they are undisputed”. It’s time for the Bolts to rebuild this team. Loyalty to hero’s of the past can stunt a team’s ability to compete. The Lightning tried to build a team around 3 superstar offensive players. It wasn’t a bad idea in Today’s NHL.

Too bad it didn’t work.

Baseball is Back!

What a great day. A bright blue, cloudless sky, 70 degrees and the sound of baseballs snapping into catchers’ mitts can mean only one thing. Spring training is back in St Pete. Since I had nothing better to do I wandered down to the Namoli complex to watch the Rays pitchers and catchers work out.

There is nothing more unlike a baseball game then a workout. Basically the pitchers were divided into three groups: one throwing in the bullpen, one working on fielding drills and one working on the most boring play in baseball – covering first base. Every 20 minutes or so the groups would rotate and once all three had completed the different stations they went to another field to run. Good times.

It’s the last season for the Rays to train at the Namoli Complex, a group of fields in St Pete that I happen to have played on at one time in my life. As a matter of fact, during the half season of adult baseball that I played in a few years ago I managed to give up a prodigious homerun on the very field the players were warming up on. Good times indeed.

I managed to snap off a couple of photos while Scott Kazmir and David Price’s group threw in the bullpen. They were joined by Jake McGee (slowly gaining popularity as the next great pitching prospect), Edwin Jackson and Trevor Miller. Miller, the old man of the group, seemed to be working on a couple of sidearm pitches while the young kids snapped the mitts rather briskly.

A large size group of fans offered their well informed opinions as they watched the players work out.

“Mike looks a lot smaller than the last time he was here…looks like he lost about 20 pounds…must have been on the juice.”

“Well he was here with Canseco.”

“Yup. Must have been on the juice.”

That was pretty much the most intelligent conversation I overheard. The guys who were criticizing Price’s location were priceless as well. Apparently to those professional scouts 10 pitches on the second day of training camp were enough to form an opinion on the Rays best pitching prospect. After hearing one of them complain about Jim Hickey for the 4th time I turned up the volume on my Ipod and went back to snapping photos.

After a hot dog and a Pepsi (nothing better on a warm Saturday afternoon at the ball yard) I wandered down to the players’ entrance where a group of about 10 fans stood waiting for autographs. Al Reyes signed for a few fans before heading into the clubhouse. It took another 15 or 20 minutes before the players started trickling by.

Matt Garza signed for most of the fans and took time to comment on the 2008 Topps card that he signed for me. Apparently he knew that was taken in Cleveland, based on the road uniform and his “bald haircut”. He seems to be happy to be on the team and looking forward to playing this year.

The autographer of the day was definitely James (Don’t Call me Jamie!) Shields. He started at one end and worked his way all the way down the line, signing for about 75 fans. John Jaso signed for everyone as well even taking the time to sign about 12 cards for one kid.

Scott Kazmir and David Price came by and signed a fair amount as well. Overall everyone was very respectful and didn’t ask for more than one auto’s per person.

Here’s hoping the Curse of the Autograph goes away this year. I walked away with signed cards of Kazmir, Shields, Paul and Garza. Jaso, Price and Chris Mason signed a blank sheet of paper that I might use for cut signatures down the line. The countdown begins, let’s see how many of them are still here in a year.


All in all a day well spent.

Quick Hits

A couple of random notes that I'll expand on later:

The Rays locked up two of their best players from 2007.

Carlos Pena - 3 years $24.1 Million. $6 Million to be paid this year, $8 million next year and over $10 million in his final year. What are the chances of him being a Ray when he's owed $10 million? Probably about the same chances of him hitting 48 home runs next season.

Scott Kazmir - 1 year $3.78 million. Things aren't looking good for Kazmir remaining a long term Ray, but at least they avoided the ugly arbitration process.

Last but definitely not least... Big Mike is off the market. My buddy and occasional commentor is engaged. Details were not released.. but congrats to the happy couple!

A little history

I have a decent sized card collection. It’s not the largest or most valuable, but it is large enough to annoy my girlfriend. To help keep an ear to the ground on new releases I subscribe to Beckett Baseball Monthly. Beckett is considered by the industry as the holy bible of cards. If you price a card, most likely you price it based on the “Beckett Cost”.

For the past few years Beckett has been posting their yearly “Rookie Rolodex” It’s an issue devoted to players that the casual fan, heck even the somewhat intense baseball fan, have never heard of and will probably never hear of. In most of the player reviews they include a “best compared to”.

They usually compare the player to a well known major leaguer so that the reader has an idea of what the potential of the prospect will be. For instance Cubs prospect Darwin Barney is compared to David Eckstein and Mets pitcher Joe Smith is compared to Chad Braford. Sometimes it appears that they compare players to other prospects just for fun. For instance Giants catching prospect is compared to “Bryan Pena”. I had to look him up and I think they were referring to Braves catcher Brayan Pena. Whatever his name is I don’t think Giants fans are jumping up and down over the comparison.

I like to flip through and see which Rays prospects pop up and what Beckett things their future looks like. The Chosen One compares to Zach Minor and Aki is compared to Mark Tehan. However, the best comparison by far is for a former Rays newsmaker – Elijah Dukes. Beckett sees him as….drum roll, please…..Toe Nash.

Wow. Gregory Toe Nash. A name that hasn’t been uttered in these parts for years. In fact I would bet dollars to donuts that 75% of the people at the Trop on opening day this year wouldn’t know who Toe Nash is. How do I know? By listening to the outrage of fans by the antics of Mr. Dukes, himself.

The legend of Toe Nash would have you walking next to Rays scout Benny Latino, the two of you picking your way through the muggy sugar cane fields of Louisiana. You would walk out of the hot, sticky fields into a clearing. Grown men, weary from a day working the fields would be gathered round playing beer league baseball in the setting southern sun.

In the middle of the men would be a young, towering goliath stood. His 6 foot 6 frame was in the words of Peter Gammons, “cut like marble”. Like the mythical Roy Hobbs he was a dual threat. Capable of hitting home runs that disappeared into the cane stalks 400 feet away and then turning around to strike out men twice his age with an elusive 90mph fastball.

In your mind you can see Latino rushing to his car and driving into town to call scouting director Dan Jennings about the 18 year old freak in the fields. Crammed into a telephone booth outside of a diner and wiping his sweating brow with his fedora he tells Jennings that he just found the next great player in the middle of nowhere - Louisiana and they need to sign him before anyone else has a chance….ok I made that all up.

At least the part about Latino calling from a telephone booth. He probably called Jennings on his cell phone, but that just doesn’t seem as dramatic. Any who the story continues with Nash being brought to West Virginia for a work out at the Rays rookie ball complex. He wowed them with 20 home runs on 50 pitches or so. He threw the ball 95 miles an hour and ended up walking away with a $30,000 signing bonus. Throw in some more made for movie moments (country boy confused in an airport, roommate teaching him how to order pizza delivery) and it was quickly turning into the greatest story ever told.

All of a sudden Toe Nash was on the front page on the USA Today, movie and book deals were being discussed, hell even Oprah was interested. Let’s not even think about the fact that he hadn’t played a professional game yet. He was going to be a star. He was surrounded by stars. In his first game he was in an outfield with future All Star Carl Crawford and can’t miss prospect Josh Hamilton who had yet to derail his own career.

What a great story. Here was a young, barely educated (dropped out of high school) product of a single family home (his mother left when he was 12) who had a chance to be the next “Babe Ruth” – a quote that a hope Jenning’s family and co-workers make fun of him for. However, in these cynical times it couldn’t be true. And of course it wasn’t. To say Nash had issues is like saying that Hamilton has a couple of tattoos.


According to the St Pete times Nash managed to be arrested 5 times in one year (take that Chris Henry!) from February 2000 to February 2001. In that time charges ranged from misdemeanor marijuana possession to domestic violence (he beat up his 41 year old girlfriend). In 2001 he raised the ante with battery and a felony count of robbery. The Times article reports that “Nash and a friend beat a man, and while the victim was choking on his blood, stole money from his wallet.” In 2002 he added aggravated rape, aggravated crimes against nature (what?) and felony theft.

Kind of puts BJ Upton and Delmon Young’s transgressions to shame doesn’t it? Well, a lot of players have “off the field issues”. What about on the field? As far as I can see he only played 47 games – hitting .240 with 8 HRs and 47 RBI. Not exactly Ruthian.

Jennings stated at the time they were committed to Nash feeling that in the proper environment he could stay out of trouble. It wasn’t to be. The Rays finally let him go after he spent some time in jail. He surfaced briefly, signing a minor league contract with the Cincinnati Reds before being cut after violating his parole.

Not much can be found on the latest exploits of Gregory “Toe” Nash, but suffice it say it doesn’t appear his career is going to have the dramatic resurgence mirroring his one time outfield partner Josh Hamilton. However, I doubt Nationals fans are overjoyed to see his name in reference to Elijah Dukes.

So instead of becoming a real life Sidd Finch or Roy Hobbs he became the 21st century Steve Dalkowski. He was also the first of the Troubled Rays before there was Josh Hamilton and his heroin abuse or Delmon Young’s fantastically flying bat there was Toe.

Buried somewhere in a box I have a couple of cards that I’ll stumble across someday with is likeness on them. Likewise I guess someday we’ll stumble across another sad news story about the Sugar Cane slugger – Toe Nash.

Happy New Year... You've Been Waived!

Happy New Year Marc Denis! You are going to get to ring in 2008 in a new city. Will it be in Springfield as a member of the Lightning’s AFL affiliate Falcons or for another NHL city that’s desperate for a goaltender (Los Angeles or Atlanta, maybe?)

This has become the first major trade to blow up in Jay Feaster’s face. Back in June of 2006 the GM pulled off his first important post Stanley Cup deal when he dealt a pair of Fredriks (popular winder Fredrik Modin and young goaltender Fredrik Norrena) to Columbus for Denis.

At the time the Bolts were desperate for a true number one goalie. Nik Khabibulin had left Tampa for Chicago and big money. The John Grahme experiment was a disaster and the organization was weary of trusting any of the young netminders such as Norrena or Gerald Coleman that they had in their system. Denis was young, just 28 at the time, but had several seasons of NHL experience under his belt including 3 years as the starter for the Columbus Blue Jackets.

He had 3 seasons in a row with a save percentage over .900 for a Columbus team that wasn’t very good. Tampa was willing to believe that his best days were in front of him and with a better cast of teammates in front of him he could realize the potential that had made him a number one pick and Patrick Roy’s heir apparent for Colorado when they drafted him in 1995.

Now, not even a season and a half later, Denis and his 3 year $8.5 Million contract are sitting on waivers waiting to see if any team is willing to take a chance on him. Meanwhile the team, still desperate for a true number one, turns its attention to 21 year old Karri Ramo.

With 43 games left in the season and a record that has them tied for last place in the Southeast Division the Bolts are hoping the young Finn can spark them on a playoff run that turns around what has become a disastrous season. The confident young goalie has been better than advertised as he’s posted a .929 save percentage and a respectable 2.54 Goals Against in the four games he’s played since his recall. The stellar play has vaulted him past Johan Holmqvist and into the starting role, but hasn’t translated into wins thanks to the suddenly anemic Tampa offense.

Getting back to Denis he has reached a critical stage in his career. Three teams have now decided that he’s not their answer and at 30 he’s getting past the stage where teams are willing to risk that he can improve. Before he stopped a puck on Tampa ice he was the poster child of the organization. Literally. Few fans will forget the 30 foot poster of Denis that greeted them as they entered the Ice Palace in the beginning of 2006. A year later he joins an illustrious group of players to call themselves ex-Lightning goalies. What a list of names that is from Corey Schwab to Derek Wilkinson to Zac Beirk many have strapped on the pads only to fade into obscurity.

There could be an argument made that he never had a chance. Trading away fan favorite Modin clouded a lot of fans opinions on Denis. He scored 22 goals for Columbus last season, 22 goals that could have helped out the Bolts. In addition to his offense his willingness to play a defensive role made him invaluable to a team with free spirits like Vincent Lecavalier and Marty St Louis.

Meanwhile in two seasons Norrena is showing himself to be a capable netminders. He posted 24 wins last season and despite being supplanted by the monster that is Pascal Leclaire has 4 more wins in the season than Denis (5 to 1).

This turned out to be one of the few deals that has not worked out for the Lightning. Has it set back the franchise? Possibly, but it’s also opened the door for Ramo. For the first time since Vincent and Brad Richards were coming up the Lightning have a young player who’s ready to make an impact on the team.

Paul Ranger is a nice story, but as a defenseman he doesn’t garner the same attraction as a stud goaltender or a flashy scorer. It’s nice to see a young player like Ramo perform on the professional level when given the chance.

If he can’t keep up the strong play and fades into a Denis-esque slump where he looks lost on the ice it could spell the doom for the vaunted Big Three. One of the big guns would have to be moved either for a top-shelf goaltender or to free up money to make a run at a free agent in the off-season (Henrik Lundqvist anyone?) There was some chatter about the Bolts moving St Louis to Dallas for Marty Turco earlier in the season and a Canadian paper mentioned that they had also expressed interest in bringing Khabibulin back.

All of those rumors make for good internet and idle chat room gossip. The only the only thing that is known is that when the calendar turns to 2008 Marc Denis, once the hope of the organization, will be wearing a new uniform.