A baseball post?

I had posted awhile back that I wasn’t going to write about the Rays unless they hit a losing streak or the All-Star break. It was nice of them to roll it into one package. The team thundered into the 4 day break with an impressive 7 game losing streak. Everything that could go wrong did. The offense remained dormant, the pitching faltered and the normally reliable defense scuffled a bit.

As quickly as the national media jumped on the bandwagon they jumped off. It took the Rays roughly 5 minutes to blow the 4 game lead they had built over the Red Sox. The “I told you so’s” are lined up and ready to go.

I told you they couldn’t handle the pressure
I told you they were too young to know how to win
I told you their offense wasn’t good enough
I told you their bullpen was smoke and mirrors

Well folks let settle down a bit. No one likes a 7 game losing streak, even a franchise that is accustomed to them like Tampa Bay. However, if there is ever a time for a losing streak it was right before the break. The majority of the team got to take a break. They got to put the bats away and decompress a bit. The bullpen, which has seen a lot of work lately, got to take a few days off.

Having a clean break from the losing streak should be beneficial for the young team. If this had happened in the middle of August the losses would keep piling on, each day more pressure to win, each loss garnering more negative press. Now that they’ve had a chance to shut it down they can start the second half of the season fresh and remain a factor in the American League.

So what do they need to do to run with the big dogs? Quite simply hit the ball. 4,0,1,2,0,4,2,2 - those are the runs scored by the Rays in their last eight games That’s not going to get it done. Neither is 5 for 58 with runners in scoring position. How do they change that? The overriding theory is by bringing in a right handed bat. The names that seem to be garnering the most notoriety on the internets are Matt Holliday and Jason Bay.

While big deadline deals are sexy, especially when you’re a buyer instead of a seller for the first time in franchise history, they don’t necessarily pay off in the end. The biggest deal in 2007, Mark Teixeira to the Braves for a gaggle of prospects propelled them to a fantastic 3rd place finish in the National League East. The teams that made the American League playoffs in 2007 all made minor moves. The eventual champs, the Red Sox, picked up Eric Gagne who’s impact was minimal at best.

From reports it seems the Pirates are asking for the moon for Bay and Xavier Nady. It could cost teams as much as 2 premium prospects to acquire either of them. The Rays could put a package together that would satisfy Pittsburgh needs, but would it be worth it? Assuming David Price is off the table, what would the reaction be in losing Jeff Neimann, Desmond Jennings or Reid Brignac? While Bay is a big name and a big bat his defense in the outfield leaves a lot to be desired.

In Holliday’s case the Coors Field factor has to be a consideration. Ten of his fifteen homeruns this year are at the friendly confines in Denver. His road average is a respectable .301, but is 56 points below what he hits at home. There is also his contract. He is in the first year of a 2 year $23 million contract. That would be a lot of money for the frugal Rays to invest in an outsider.

Most likely the offense will have to come from players already on the team. Carlos Pena, BJ Upton and Carl Crawford are the names that immediately jump out as ones who need to turn it up. Pena seemed to be warming up as he hit .294 with two homeruns in the nine games before the All-Star break. If he can stay healthy and provide the type of offense that justifies his large contract than it will be similar to picking up a new player.

Upton has slumped recently, hitting .190 in the month of July, but has been steady if not spectacular for most of the season. Coach Joe Madden may want to think about moving Upton to the leadoff spot. With his power numbers down and his walk numbers up he may be better suited to hit leadoff. That would leave Aki Iwamura without a spot in the line up, but as anemic as the offense has been it might not be a bad idea to try some players in different spots.

Crawford seems to be a victim of his own success. As the only bright spot for a dismal franchise for many years CC is suffering through his first down year. It was a year that many had high hopes for, including Crawford. He is a notorious streaky hitter and seems to be striking the ball a lot harder in recent games. If he starts getting on and wreaking havoc on the bases it will lead to better pitches for the heart of the order behind him.

There is still a lot of ball to be played this season. One losing streak is not the end of the world for this team, but they must find their offense or they face risk proving the naysayers right.

Skating on into the San Jose Sunset

The light is dimming on the Dan Boyle Era here in the TBA. Rumors began swirling around like storm clouds during the madness that is the beginning of the free agency period. With OK Hockey signing every available forward they could the payroll blew by their self appointed $48 million cap and has come to rest slightly above the NHL mandated $56 million cap. After the binging it was time to begin the purge.

Boyle is cursed with owning the largest contract by a member of the Lightning not named Vinny Lecavalier. The fact that OK Hockey had supposedly signed off on that deal has suddenly become a mute point. He’s also a valuable commodity. Puck moving defensemen are a rare asset in the new NHL. Which is of course why the 31 year old is getting $6.67 million over the next six years.

The rumors grew louder once Brian Campell signed with Chicago. The number one defensive free agent was off the market and several teams were left wanting. The Senators, Flyers, Thrashers and Sharks all became potential dance partners for the Lightning.

As reports surfaced on Thursday that the Lightning had officially asked Boyle to waive his No Trade Clause Ottawa seemed a likely dance partner. They needed a defenseman, they had salary cap room and a player the Bolts would like in return in Andrej Meszaros and Boyle was originally from the Ottawa area. That possibility, however, died at the hands of Ottawa general manager Bryan Murray who stated that the Boyle deal was “too rich for the Senators” according to an article in the Ottawa Citizen.

Atlanta, an interdivision foe, seemed an unlikely destination. Boyle seemed to relish sticking it to his former team (the Florida Panthers) and would probably do the same against the Lightning. Making another deal with Philadelphia seemed to be overkill as the two teams have seemingly made 864 deals in the past 10 years.

That left San Jose. After taking a night to sleep on it TSN reports that Boyle agreed to be traded to the Sharks Saturday morning. In exchange for Boyle and hard-rocking defenseman Brad Lukowich the Lightning would receive Matt Carle, a prospect and a 1st round and 4th round pick. Carle is the centerpiece of the deal, a 23 year old defender in Boyle’s mold. Getting back 2 picks would also give Ryan Malone’s dad something to do as head of Lightning scouting department.

Once this deal is consummated, TSN reports it’s only pending paperwork, the Dan Boyle Era will be officially over. Boyle joined the Lightning in January of 2002, plucked from the Florida Panthers for a 5th round draft pick. He had spent two unhappy seasons in Miami playing for a coach, Mike Keenan, that he “couldn’t stand to look at”.

His arrival in Tampa Bay signaled a changing of the tide in the area. No longer were lumbering statues securing the Lightning blue line. Boyle would be a key component in the build up to the Stanley Cup winning team of 2004. His ability to move the puck out of the defensive zone set the pace for Coach Tortorella’s “Safe is Death” style of play. His 67 goals in a Lightning uniform are a team record for defenseman.

The offense he provided offset any liability he posed on defense. Not everyone needs to be a rugged, hard hitting defense first player. The fact that Boyle could skate the puck up the ice allowed Lecavalier and Marty St Louis to surge forward and get set up in the offensive zone. That’s an element that the Bolts will be missing unless Carle can return to his 2006-07 form that saw him score 11 goals and add 31 assists. Paul Ranger, who would be the de facto number one member of the blue line, is able to move the puck more by passing than carrying it down the ice himself.

It’s always a sad day when a fan-favorite has to move on. The new ownership seems hell-bent on totally renovating the team that was built under the Feaster/Tortorella regime. By the time its done it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Lecavalier as the only remaining link to the Stanley Cup team. The lack of Feaster’s name in any report seem to indicate that the embattled GM is on his way out. With his removal the OK Hockey takeover will be complete. Will it be for the better? That’s still to be determined. At least there will always be the memories of Boyle zooming up the ice with the puck on his stick and his head up surveying his options. Deciding that he had no better options he kicked it into a seemingly higher gear and weave his way to the net. With a quick flick of the wrist the puck would be behind the opposing goaltender.

Mullets, Melrose and Merry Times are Here!

It’s been quite the busy week for the Lightning. New owners, new coaches, new contracts and exciting new talent. The impact of all these changes won’t be determined for at least another 3 months when training camp starts, but it‘s nice to be talking about hockey in June. As an organization there hasn’t been this much of an overhaul since the Art Williams’ days. Not that anyone ever wants to recall those dark days.

One thing has been determined right away. The guys at OK Hockey are going to be hands-on owners. After years of the Davidson Group spending most of the hockey season in Detroit it will be interesting to see how the area reacts to owners that want to dabble in their investment. As early as the trade deadline there were rumors of Oren and Len talking with other teams about players without Jay Feaster’s involvement.

With Barry Melrose replacing John Tortorella and former agent Brian Lawton taking over for Bill Barber as VP of Hockey Operations it must be feeling kind of lonely for Mr. Feaster. New owners have a tendency to want to bring their guys in to run the show and even though they’ve supported him so far it wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see Feaster leave the organization within a year.

I’ll spare you the mullet jokes and the hate filled tirade against Melrose. I’m not sure why fans are getting as fired up about this as they are. Would they rather see Mike Keenan in here? He always gets along so well with his player, doesn’t he? The fact that Melrose hasn’t coached in over a decade could be a good thing. He may bring something new to the table. He doesn’t like the trap, wants to out work other teams and acknowledges the importance of a goalie. Sounds like an ok coach to me. It doesn’t seem that long ago that people were bemoaning the fact that the Lightning had hired some guy with no NHL head coach experience. That guy - John Tortorella and that seemed to work out alright.

Melrose will be able to build his team, a team which he said could be quite different from the one that took the ice last season, around young Vincent Lecavalier. Despite the fact he’s been in the NHL for a decade, Vinny is still only 28 so signing him to a nine year deal isn’t that bad of an idea. With his physical conditioning it isn’t a stretch to see him playing into his 40’s. Based on the preliminary numbers being thrown out there by TSN.ca ($8.6 million per year) he’s really only making a little more than a million more than he did last year.

The deal isn’t too bad and it’ll look even better when someone signs Marion Hossa to a similar deal. The same Hossa who has never scored 50 goals and is a year older than young Vinny. Lecavalier, as a center, is inherently more valuable to the team as well. He makes other players around him better whereas a winger such as Hossa needs somebody setting him up. My best guess is that Hossa ends up in New York, especially if Jagr plays in Europe.

Another free agent name getting a lot of play in the TBA blog-o-spheres is Ryan Malone. He’s big (6’4”), he’s a left winger and he’s racked up 20 goals or more in 3 of his 4 seasons in the NHL. The only problem - he’s going to be expensive. A GM would probably have to spend around $5 million a season for several years to lock up his services. Malone will be able to play several suitors off of each other - a scenario that almost always leads to a team spending too much money.

While the team promised to be active in free agency, aggressive is the word they used I believe, I don’t think Malone is a good fit. We’ll explore free agents more after July 1.

In short and with the exception of talking about Steven Stamkos, who I hope everyone has seen by now, that’s what the Bolts have been up to lately. The climb to the top of the division has only begun. They’re out of the cellar.

Don't fear the Mulleted One - Off Season Lightning Notes

I know it’s been awhile since I’ve posted anything on this page. I haven’t forgotten about you my loyal reader. Certain factors have kept me from updating this site. Chief among them being laziness of course, but as I’ve mentioned before I don’t get paid for this. I don’t even force you kids to suffer through advertisements. So if I post with Bill Simmons like regularity please forgive me.

Initially this was going to be a post about the Rays and their recent success , but with my uncanny ability to alter the course of events with my posting I figured I would leave that until a losing streak occurs on its accord or the All-Star Break whichever comes first.

Instead let us take a journey through the offseason of my other favorite TBA team – the Lightning. After all, it can’t really get much worse. Even though the NHL is embroiled in the midway point of the regular season it seems like the Lightning’s season has been over for about 6 years now. Not making the playoffs is almost as bad as another lockout. The Bolts haven’t suited up since April 5th which, if you look at the positive, means they haven’t lost in almost two months.

In the meantime, however, they have managed to keep their name in the news. The back page of the news, but any press is good press, right? Let’s start with the positive. With an assist from former captain Dave Andreychuk the Bolts secured the number one pick in June’s draft. Unlike the Buc’s they’re not being cagey about who they’re drafting. Multiple billboards in the TBA are sporting a simple message - Seen Stamkos? – followed by a website (www.seenstamkos.com) which is filled with a few YouTube videos of the tremendously talented center. Who owns the website, well the Tampa Bay Lightning of course. So don’t go swimsuit shopping Drew Doughty you’re not getting drafted by the Bolts.

If Steve Stamkos represents the future of the team then the eminent signing of their first free agent (which can’t be officially completed until July 1st) represents a dip into their recent past. It appears the Lightning and Russian powerhouse Evgeny Artyukhin have put their differences aside and have agreed in principle to a two year deal to bring the bruising forward back to the black and blue. The current brass envisions a crash line of Artyukhin, Chris Gratton and Nick Tarnasky punishing foes next season. It’s an interesting idea and may be the first line in the history of hockey to go through a season without scoring a point.

Interesting doesn’t begin to describe the last few weeks of John Tortorella’s coaching life. During what should have been one of the highlights of his career, coaching Team USA in the World Championships, he managed to possibly talk his way out of his regular paying gig. At the end of April news leaked out that Torts had offered his resignation to Jay Feaster during their end of season meeting. The mild firestorm was stoked by our favorite radio personality, The Big Dog, who mentioned and reiterated, and repeated that the coach cancelled an interview with him the same day the news leaked out.

The Canadian papers fanned the flames a little more by writing that Torts was pretty much done it was just a matter of waiting for the sale to OK hockey to be completed. The kicker to that story was that Oren and the boys already have a replacement lined up. None other than the mulleted one himself – Barry Melrose. This has been greeted by a less than enthusiastic response from the Lightning faithful.

This is not good. Not many coaches survive once the “he’s getting fired” reports start hitting the rounds. All he needs now is the vote of confidence from Feaster and his fate will be sealed. Other than Melrose there are a couple other candidates available now, from in house (Mike Sullivan) to the recently unemployed (Joel Quinville and Ron Wilson). For the past two seasons quiet whispers have circulated in print and throughout the electronic ether that Coach has lost the team. I’m not sure how much of that is true, but it gives the new ownership a convenient out.
Injured players have been an issue for the last few years as well and have also played a prominent role in the off-season. No less than three key players have succumbed to the surgeon’s scalpel so far this spring. Vincent Lecavalier has had his shoulder worked on, Paul Ranger must have thought it was a cool surgery because he had the same one about a week after Vinny.

If that wasn’t enough Jeff Halpern, the post trade deadline points machine, was busy leading his country to glory in the World Championships when Canada’s Rick Nash and Brent Burns decided his knee ligaments needed to be rearranged. After the hit (which was legal) Halpern was left with a MCL sprain and a ruptured ACL. While I’m here I might as well mention that the No Limits Fun Factory (where I work) has had more ACL injuries than any workplace I have ever heard about. No less than 6 people that I personally know at that place have had their knees redone. Well back to the Lightning.

It’s not yet known if the three players will be ready by the time the puck is dropped in Prague next fall, but if they aren’t the Bolts are going to have reach pretty deep into a very shallow pool of minor league talent. So let’s look forward to the next 3 months of off-time and pray to the hockey gods that things look up from here.

The Lightning Win (finally)

Well it looks like the Bolts will have the number one pick overall come June. So by October Steve Stamkos should be skating on the number 2 line. Good for them, it's a nice shining moment for an otherwise dismal season.

It will be interesting to see what kind of team shows up in Brandon for next season's training camp. Stamkos will come with the hype that follows a number one draft pick. Vincent Lecavalier will be coming off major shoulder surgery and possibly wrist surgery. It seems the goalie job will be Mike Smith's to lose and Kari Ramo might be in Springfield.

It doesn't look like the Lightning will be super agressive in the free agent market, possibly their biggest acquistion will be a vetern backup goalie (think Olaf Kolzig). Their self imposed salary cap prevents them from being a bidder for the likes of Marion Hossa. Look for them to find a 5 or 6 d-man and a winger along the lines of Michelle Oullett.

Let me be one of the first to welcome Mr. Stamkos to the TBA -- prepare for the apathy!

How Eric Hinske could Ruin Evan Longoria's Career.

So what happens if Eric Hinske IS this year’s Carlos Pena? No one is talking about the consequences of Hinske making the everyday roster. We’re only a week into the season so it’s still too early to see if he will keep his average over .300, but so far he has looked solid as this year’s pick off the major league scrap heap. As a matter of fact, as I typed the last sentence he just drilled a single into right field off of Chien-Ming Wang to put runners on the corners with no one out.

The nDRO was criticized heavily for sending down prized super prospect Evan Longoria to begin the season. Their thinking was that it would be beneficial to Longoria (more at bats) and the team (delay his major league service saving them money long term). In the meantime the Rays would be able to hold court with the two headed dragon of Willy Aybar and Hinske.

Fans cried out in anguish on message boards across the vast internet wasteland. Even seasoned mainstream writers weren’t immune from the sexy prospect of the 23 year old starting the season with the big club. SI’s resident baseball guru Tom Veducci wrote, “Get him to the majors ASAP. The kid, polished and confident, looks as if he’s already been in the bigs 10 years”.

Well ok then. If a writer thinks it’s time for the Rays to call up the jewel in their top rated crop of future stars then let’s do it! From a quick look at his stats (11 at bats, 4 K’s and 0 hits) it appears the Rays may have made the right call. Hopefully, the demotion and his early struggles serve as a wake-up call. After spending all off season and Spring Training hearing how great he is and is going to be this could provide a little perspective.

Please don’t read this as a pile on Longoria post. He’s going to be good, really good when his time comes. Rather let’s give the Rays some credit for thinking long term. The easy call would have been to start the young kid on the roster. He didn’t embarrass himself in spring training and Aybar’s gimpy hamstring could have opened up a spot. The fans would have been happy; the press would be able to gush over the second coming of Mike Schmidt.

Andrew Friedman and his associates (Friedman and Associates – a new law firm?) stood firm with their decision. In comments to the St Pete Times he even acknowledged that they might be “erring on the side of caution” by sending him down. Of course they are and they should. The future Rays teams, the teams that fans insist will be competing for a title in 2010, must be built around the nucleus of Longoria, Crawford, Upton and their cadre of young arms.

If Longoria is called up to soon, loses his confidence and washes out of the majors then what happens? As unlikely as that scenario may be, it would be disastrous to the organization. The same fans who are calling for the bloody head of Friedman for not promoting him would promptly jump to the other side of the fence and blame him for destroying their new savior. More importantly the team will be missing a key component of their future. By keeping the slugger in Durham for a few months there is no long term damage.

On the other side of the coin there is the financial aspect. In the same article quoted above Friedman states that the financial aspect of sending Longoria down was “virtually irrelevant”. The unnamed interneters don’t buy that for one second. They see it as a ploy to keep the kid under Rays control for as long as and as cheap as possible. It’s still puzzling to hear people whine about the “cheap ownership” and how the “tightwads” are being unfair to the fans.

This current group has shown a willingness to spend money on the players that are important to the future of the team. How quickly the large contracts handed out to Carlos Pena and James Shields are forgotten. Feel free to criticize the past ownership about being a tight-fisted tyrannical crew ( I’m thinking specifically about Namoli making a band who was invited to play the National Anthem buy tickets to watch the game), but nothing the nDRO has done has indicated that they are willing to field a lesser team in order to save money.

Another thing to look at, in the long term this could actually cost the Rays more money. If they are unable to sign Longoria to a long term deal before he’s a free agent it would be better that he’s a free agent sooner rather than later. Why’s this you ask? Well when have you ever known the cost of free agents to go down from year to year? Signing the future All-Star to a big free agent deal in 2014 rather than 2013 could cost the Rays millions more over all.

Don’t believe it? Then let us turn back the clock to 2005. In April of that year a young Rays outfielder by the name of Carl Crawford inked a 6 year $32.5 million contract with the team. Everyone was happy. The team had locked up one of its stars and Crawford was being rewarded for his exemplary performance on the field. Even the fans were impressed by the commitment to the future shown by the new ownership. Now imagine how much more Crawford would have cost to lock up (or even in arbitration) if they had waited a year or so. Why’s that? Alfonso Soriano and Vernon Wells.

After the 2006 season Soriano (eight years $136 million) and Wells (seven years $126 million) drove up the cost of acquiring outfield talent. If he hadn’t signed his big deal the year before Crawford would have been in arbitration with the Rays, imagine how that would have turned out. Not well for the Rays especially with names like David Wright, Miguel Cabrera and Alex Rodriguez sharing Longoria’s position.
So fans, please relax. You’ll have plenty of time to enjoy Longoria’s heroics in the blue, white and yellow of the Rays. In the meantime enjoy the fact that your 2008 Rays are showing that they belong in the majors and just took two of three from the Yankees. If you have to get fired up about something go to an old standby – Jon Gomes not getting enough playing time.

My late preseason breakdown of YOUR Tampa Bay Rays

There is really not much I can add for a season preview that the national pundits haven’t already addressed. They’re young, they’re better than ever and they’re going to be tough to play. The always reliable preseason predictors have them winning between 79 and 89 games. They have the second coming of Tom Seaver (Scott Kazmir), Mike Schmidt (Evan Longoria) and Joe DiMaggio (B.J. Upton).

Reading the posts of the faceless commenters on various blogs would lead one to believe that anything less than .500 and a late season wild card chase would be a disappointment and cost them a chance of getting a new stadium on the waterfront. Of course they also think the DRO has personal vendettas against them as evidenced by the demotion of Longoria the wunderkind.

If they would take a deep breath and realize every little move isn’t life or depth they would realize that the club built is decidedly stronger than any Rays club ever assembled. They have speed, power, defense and depth. They have a bullpen that doesn’t rely on Brian Stokes or Chad Orvella. Carlos Pena could smash 40 homeruns and Upton could hit 30. Jimmy Shields could pitch 240 innings and garner 20 wins. Kazmir (if healthy, always add the “if healthy” when dealing with the slight lefty) could be a Cy Young candidate. Unfortunately they need all of that to happen to sniff 80 wins this year.

When it comes down to it they just play in too tough of a division right now to expect the 90 wins necessary to be talked about in the playoff hunt. New York, Boston and Toronto are better on paper Baltimore, despite their recent renovations, always plays the Rays tough. These are the facts and they are indisputable.
Luckily for you, me and the dog next door baseball doesn’t always rely on facts and logic. Despite the trend towards statistics and PECOTA’s there are still intangibles, or “what if’s” that affect the way a season unfolds.

What if Josh Beckett misses a few games against the Rays and they take advantage to sneak out a few wins against a team that has dominated them the last few seasons?

What if the Yankees young studs falter?

What if Toronto continues its lackluster 3rd place ways?

What if the Rays precautions pan out and Kazmir throws 200 injury free innings?

What if Pena doesn’t get weighed down by his huge contract and puts up another 40-some homeruns?

If the Rays have enough of those go there way wild card wouldn’t be out of reach. Looking back on what was just typed, those what if’s aren’t quite so farfetched.

Instead of my usual overall preseason prognostications let’s go with a position-by-position breakdown.

First Base

Carlos Pena

Last Season – 46 homeruns .282 average 121 RBI’s
2008 Prediction – 37 homeruns .269 average 120 RBI’s

His home run production should be down as pitchers around the league are better prepared for him. Other than Upton there really aren’t too many other every day home run threats in the lineup. However, don’t forget that he will basically have an extra month of at bats since he didn’t really work his way into the Rays line up until May last season.

His offense overshadows what might be his biggest asset this season – his defense. As he looks out into the infielder no one he sees was in the same place last season. Aki is learning a new position at 2nd, Jason Bartlett has had his ups and downs at short, and who knows what kind of defense is going to be played from the three-headed third base position. Pena will be key to keeping extra runners off the bases for the young pitching staff.

Second Base

Aki Iwamura

Last season – 7 homeruns .285 average 34 RBI’s
2008 Prediction – 12 homeruns .290 57 RBI’s

The Japanese import had his ups and downs last season and became a bit if a cult sensation (especially here). A couple of injuries derailed him a bit and kept him from getting into a comfortable groove. When healthy he has a knack (an Aki-Knack?) for scoring runs (82 Runs in 123 games) he could blossom into a nice table setter for a potentially potent Rays' lineup.

He has one game under his belt at 2nd base this season and has already drawn rave reviews. As naturally talented as he is it shouldn’t be a big adjustment and he should definitely be an upgrade over Brendan Harris and Josh Wilson. It will be a shame that one of his greatest assets, laser cannon like throwing arm, will not be displayed quite as much.

More tomorrow.