Always Late and Rarely Useful - The O's Season Preview

As of this writing the O’s are sitting at 5-2 in second place in the American League East. They have taken 2 of 3 from presumptive powerhouses Tampa and New York. They’re hitting .303 as a team. Their ace (c’mon you know who it is - Jeremy Gutherie) is 2-0 as is their hot Japanese import Koji Uehara. So why do I think they’re going to end up in 4th place by the time September rolls around?

Simply put - the pitching.

There is no way around it, this team will get as far as the pitching staff lets it. When you factor in that Mark Hendrickson and Adam Eaton compose 40% of the starting rotation - that means their not going to go too far. They are 5-2 with a team ERA over 6.00. That’s not exactly playoff material. Making things worse, they just lost Alfredo Simon, a promising young right-hander who claimed the 5th spot in the rotation out of spring training.

Guthrie is an interesting case. He may be one of the few “aces” that took a pay cut going into a season where the team knew he was going to be the number one starter. In 80 games (59 starts) with the O’s over three seasons he has amassed a 19-17 record. That is pretty consistent for a team that is 46 games below .500 in that same stretch.

Back to his contract. In 2008, Guthrie was playing under a one year contract that paid him $770,000 base on a deal he signed with Cleveland when he was drafted in 2002. According to The Baltimore Sun. going into 2009 the O’s had the right to cut his salary by 20% under the current labor agreement. The final deal he signed was for about $650,000 which is about 15% less than what he was making.

Only the O’s could find a way to pay their ace less despite him having a decent year. Of course if he continues his effective above .500 pitching he could be in for an AJ Burnett type deal in a few seasons. Meanwhile, he’ll be fighting the good fight while the O’s management grooms the next generation of starters.

Well sure, the starting pitching has some holes, but the bullpen is strong right? Well it could be. Chris Ray was a solid closer before he blew his arm out two seasons ago. How he rebounds has yet to be determined. If he is strong he could take over the closing role from George Sherrill, the lefty known as much for his comically flat-billed cap as he is for his prowess as a closer.

Getting from the starter to the closer will be an adventure based on a bullpen filled with names such as Danys Baez, Jim Johnson, Brian Bass, Dennis Sarafate, and Jamie Walker. With lackluster starting pitching these guys could be logging a ton of innings. I tend towards optimism when it comes to my teams and even I have to admit that there is a minor sense of trepidation when I see those names in print.

So while the pitching will be the weak spot, the offense will be explosive. Headlined by star in the making and the newest multi millionaire from Glen Cove, NY - Nick Markakis this team will put some runs on the board. They are solid in the 1-4 slots with Brian Roberts leading off, future All Star Adam Jones hitting second, Markakis third and Aubrey Huff in the cleanup sport.

Once you get past those four the production drops off a bit with the likes of Cesar Izturis and Greg Zaun hitting. It’s no secret that Zaun is just holding a spot until the club feels uber-prospect Matt Weiters is ready to don the orange and black. What Izturis lacks in offense he’ll make up for in defense.

A key spot in the lineup will be Melvin Mora. He has quietly provided solid offense from the third base spot over the last 7 seasons. He’s never hit less than 14 home runs or under .274. Another average year from him give the O’s 7 of 9 spots that could hit .300 with double digit home runs.

After years of wondering the baseball no man’s land - spending money like they’re the Yankees or Red Sox, but playing the Royals or Pirates the O’s management made a true rebuilding commitment last year. That rebuilding centered around strong, young pitching and locking up their good talent like Markakis.

Strengthing their defense has also been important, hence the off season signing of the slick fielding Izturis. In 2008, the Rays showed how improving your defense improves your pitching. The young pitchers that will start getting called up this season will only be helped by infielders that can turn the ground ball up the middle into an out instead of a base hit.

So to wrap things up the O’s should have the guns to compete in the AL East, but their lack of major league quality arms will be their undoing over the long season.

It's Over

The long, national...well local...nightmare is over. The Lightning have officially entered the post season. Sure 16 other teams are still playing, but that's not the important thing. The important thing is well, um, the Bolts get an extra two months of rest?

I'll post a longer wrap up this week when I've had some time to distance myself from the season and take a slightly more objective look. The good news is that I think things will be looking up for them next season.

Until then - get ready for the best sports "season" of the year - the NHL post-season.

Quick Hits - Opening Day Edition

Yeah, yeah, yeah Opening Day was yesterday, but this site has never prided itself on promptness. After all, if I'm not mistaken I still owe my readers an O's preview and a list of predictions. Hopefully, by this weekend they will be posted.

In the meantime here are some random observations:

- I'm typing this as 10.38pm on Tuesday night. Thanks to the MLB Extra Innings free preview I'm watching the Dodgers vs Padres and that means I'm listening to the soothing tones of Vin Scully. There is no better announcer working today - I will not argue this, part of the reason I pay for the mlb tv online is so that I can listen to Dodger games late at night. The only reason I bought, "The Love of the Game" is because he is calling the Billy Chapel's historic last game (what you thought it was for Kevin Costner's realistic pitching motion?)

- The O's are in first. Hot Damn. 112 wins here they come! No matter what happens the rest of the year, at least the fans have that day.

- It's ok Rays fans. You can put the knives down, the season isn't over yet. It's just one loss. I know you're not used to this since you've only been following the team since August of last year, but it's going to be alright.

- The Lightning lost to the Penguins 6-4. At least they had the common courtesy to lose in regulation. It's been awhile since I've seen a team limp home like this. If the Lightning were a horse they would have been euthanized two weeks ago.

- I have two boxes of Hockey cards and a couple of packs of Topps Heritage on the way from Dave and Adam's Card World. I like this ordering online stuff. the last couple of visits to my local card shop have been less than overwhelming. Lack of inventory (still no Topps base product), lack of interest (the guy behind the desk was flipping through comic books for 5 minutes before acknowledging that I might want to buy something from him) and prices that aren't worth make me wonder if I'll even go back.

- Vin Scully just dropped the line "Like the music man, you have to know the territory". Fantastic.

- Tommorrow I will be boarding a US Air Flight to Wilmington, NC. My dad will pick me up at the airport and then we'll make the five hourish drive to Augusta, Georgia. Together we will attend the first round of the Masters on Thursday. After that we'll drive back to Wilmington for a quick round of golf on his home course before I catch a flight back to Tampa. Not a bad way to spend a couple of days - it sure beats sitting at a desk.

Enjoy the baseball folks.

Let's play ball! Well let's talk about playing ball!

It’s that time of year. The time of year when everyone gazes into their crystal ball and tries to predict what’s going to happen in the upcoming season. I’m not going to lie, I haven’t spent too much time this season watching or listening to Rays preseason games. I’ve read the local papers and a couple of the websites around the internet, but I haven’t exactly done all of my homework.

Are you surprised? After all, you don’t come here for well thought out and reasoned opinions, right? You come here for the pictures of naked women. Wait, my editor just told me we don’t have those either. Looks like you’re all out of luck.

So since there are no naked women or well-formed, thought out analysis I guess you’ll have to settle for half thought out, easily disproved, spur of the moment ideas. In past seasons I’ve previewed the Rays by going over the projected 40 man roster (I was bored with that by the 15th player) and by comparing and predicting year over year results by position (I made it all the way though 2 positions!) This year you get some random thoughts followed by an overall prediction. So without further adieu - here it goes:


Player who is ready to burst on onto the national scene: B.J. Upton

While his season may start a week late, look for the 24 year old to build on his solid post season from last year. He has the potential to play Gold Glove defense while hitting 30 homeruns, 30 doubles and stealing 30 bases. While last year the press was ready to run him out of town this season they will be begging the Rays to lock him up long term (possibly at the expense of moving Carl Crawford).

Not to throw too many numbers at you, but while playing with a torn labrum last season he still hit 37 doubles and stole 44 bases. He also increased his walk total from 65 walks in 2007 (a rate of one walk every 8.43 plate appearances) to 97 in 2008 (one every 6.59 plate appearances). He also struck out 20 less times despite having 57 more at bats. All those numbers point to increased plate discipline which leads to him getting better pitches to hit. With a repaired shoulder he will be able to drive the ball more, especially to left field.

Player who is about to change “future potential” to “lost potential”: Scott Kazmir

He has now pitched 125 games in the green / white / blue uniforms of the Rays. In 5 seasons he has always been labeled as the future ace or ace of the staff. The times, however, are changing. Right now James Shields is the present and David Price is the future.

Kazmir is only 25, but he is quickly turning into an “old 25”. His arm has thrown 12,736 pitches during regular season games (and another 543 in All-Star / Post Season innings) and that it is biggest problem. Over the past three seasons his number of pitches per inning have increased from 16.80 to 18.05 which is the number one reason he hasn’t had a complete game since 2006.

The lefty has mentioned that he never trusted his slider last year and that could have been part of the problem. I have yet to find this stat anywhere, but I am willing to bet that no one in the league gives up more 2 strike foul balls than Kazmir. If he’s regained the confidence of his slider that may change, if not it’s going to be another long season of watching him throw 115 pitches to get through 6 innings. If that’s the case maybe it’s time to explore the possibility of moving him to the bullpen.

Player who should have retired gracefully last year, but is hanging on and making things uncomfortable: Troy Percival

He brought leadership to the bullpen last year. He wore the morale building T-Shirt. He saved 28 games out of 32. He also had three trips to the disabled list last year and off season back surgery. Oh, and when he was told that he wasn’t on the postseason roster he took his ball and went home to California.

While he’s saying all the right things now(feeling great, never been healthier, etc) things could be very different by June or July. With him staying on the roster the Rays are forced to chose between Jeff Niemann and Jason Hammel. Closer-in-waiting Grant Balfour will spend another season in set up exile.

I spent much of last season defending his role on the team, but this season it just seems deferent. The team has been through the fires of the post season and that “veteran role” isn’t so important. With the talent the Rays have waiting in the wings they can’t afford to waste a roster spot with a player coach.

Joe Maddon is loyal. He is loyal to a fault. If Percival struggles early on will Merlot Joe be able to make the decision to pull the aging closer? If he does, how will Percival react. He is stubborn, which is a solid trait in a closer, but might fracture a team that prides itself on chemistry.

Enough on the players how about the team?

What is the worst thing that can happen for the Rays? A slow start.

I was debating between a slow start and injuries, but using the injury excuse is a cop out. The Rays made it through last year despite having their top slugger (Carlos Pena), stud rookie (Evan Longoria), best all around talent (Carl Crawford) and strikeout artist (Kazmir) all spend time on the DL.

So we’re left with a slow start. Six of their first nine games are against the Red Sox and the Yankees. It will definitely be an early test to see how the Al East is going to shake out. More important, however, is how the rest of the month will shake out. If they stumble against the O’s, Mariners, and A’s then they might find themselves playing catch up in October.

Am early slump could also erode away the growing fan base that the ownership is counting on to pay for the $60 million payroll. The TBA is a notoriously fickle sports nation. A three game losing streak will have “fans” cancelling their season tickets and complaining about the lack of football in the summer.

What is the best thing that can happen for the Rays? Offense, Offense, Offense

The two big off season acquisitions were Pat Burrell and Matt Joyce. It looks like they’re going to both be in the opening day lineup. They were brought in to stabilize a line up that had a few holes in it - especially against left handed pitchers.

The line up now boasts two possible 40 home run threats (Pena and Longoria), two 30 home run threats (Upton and Burrell) and a possible 20 home run hitter in Crawford. That’s enough offense to make Jon Gruden giddy. What I can’t make a Gruden/offensive genius joke just because he was fired?

Adding that kind of firepower to a team that’s built on a base of defense and pitching could make for a very dangerous team. In the AL East they will need every bit of it to repeat as the Division Champs.

So enough with the build up - where are they going to finish? Wildcard

It pains me to say it, but I think the Yankees made enough changes to jump back to the top of the standings. Adding two legitimate number one starters is going to make the difference. It will be a close race, which means another fun season!

The Price is Going Down? The Price is Wrong?Falling Price's?

So the big news out of Rays camp is that David Price will start the season in Durham. While that might be good for Dave over at Fielders Choice it seems the some fans aren’t taking it well. It is kind of expected. After all, most of these “fans” weren’t around last spring when the same thing happened with Evan Longoria. I do seem to remember quite a bit of gnashing of teeth when he was sent down at the end of the spring last season. Last time I checked that seemed to work out alright for everyone.

I think Friedman and Co. have earned the benefit of the doubt over the last few seasons so I’m going to roll with the them on this one. Also, it makes the most sense for the parties involved. It gives the Rays some time to work out the Jeff Niemann / Jason Hammel situation (my prediction is Niemann stays and Hammel is traded or claimed on waivers). Plus, as an added bonus, they keep Price under team control for an extra season or so.

For Price he gets a chance to work on becoming a more dominating pitcher than he already is. He was able to electrify the crowd during the post season with only his fastball and slider. While that might work for a reliever, it’s not going to work for someone who is projected to be a front line starter. He needs to develop the change up and the Rays can’t afford for him to do that in the majors.

According to Baseball Reference the first time through the order opponents hit .100 against him. The second time through the average went up to .276. While it’s a limited sample (only 17 plate appearances) it’s indicative a pitcher that only has limited options in getting a hitter out. That’s where the importance of the change up comes in. Having three solid pitches will allow him to keep hitters guessing during their second and third at bats.

On the afternoon radio show the host, a man of strong opinions, questioned a caller who supported the decision. He asked his caller if he thought Price was “one of the five best pitchers on the staff right now”, and then proceeded to berate him when the caller replied in the negative.

Here’s the thing, right now, Price is not one of the best five starters the Rays have. Will he be one day, and one day soon? Of course, but right now he doesn’t give them the best chance to win. The rotation looks to be set with Shields, Kazmir, Garza, Sonnanstine and Niemann. Price will benefit from a regular spot in Durham where he knows he’s going to go out every 5 days. If was the number 5 on the Rays he may only get 3 or 4 starts in April due to off days and rainouts.

Do I buy the 170 inning rule that management is pitching? To a certain extent I do. I don’t think it’s a hard and fast number, but I’m sure they want to keep him around that number. They may be accused of “babying” him along, but too many young phenoms have been rushed to the detriment of their career.

If you want a case in point check out the career of Mark Prior. He threw 116 innings in his rookie year, skyrocketed to 211 the next year and has battled arm injuries since then. Would you like one solid year for Price or a long career of solid years.

That’s what this move is all about - longevity. If things go as planned Price will be the foundation of the rotation for many years to go. If handled properly then those many years will hopefully be injury free.

This isn’t meant to bash young David Price. I have a feeling he is going to be a 20 game winner in the majors, just not this year. One great post season does not a great pitcher make. The postseason did show what he was made of - brass cojones. Now he just needs to harness the million dollar talent.

It will be fun to listen to the experts rant and rave on the radio/TV/internet for a few months, but in the long run it’s just going to be a lot of empty noise.

Quick Note from the publisher, owner and chief contributer....

It seemroll by when you’re being lazy. There was a quick trip to New Orleans that I could blame it on, but that was s that a lot of time has transpired since I last wrote on this site. It’s amazing how quickly the days a week ago and still there’s nothing new on the site.

Worry not fearless readers (Hi Mom and Dad!) I do have a host of ideas planned for the next couple of weeks. The always entertaining preseason predictions is being worked on right now, as well as previews for both the Rays and the O’s.

I’ll also work in a review of some cards that are being sent by a fellow O’s fan Chris over atSacBunt . He was the lucky winner of the firstTampaSportsWasteland contest and also did me the kindness of taking my Redskins cards off of my hands. Another team down - and almost 200 cards reduced from the collection.

Jeez three referenced links in one paragraph. I might just be getting the hang of this internetting thing.

By the time I work in those columns it’ll be time for some final thoughts on the Lightning season, which aren’t as negative as you might think it might be. I see good things in the future for this team and I am ready to order my #91 Stamkos jersey. He’s going to be fun to watch.

Oh and congrats to me. I sold my first card in five years. Not on eBay, but on Wensy.com . It’s not a household name , but it has the lure of no listing fees. Check it out when you get a chance.

A little bit of wheeling, but not much dealing.

So the original plan for this post was the 4th Annual NHL Deadline Running Diary. Yes, it’s a shameless rip-off of a Bill Simmons gimmick, but it is usually fun to write. The fact that it also killed a day at work was not a bad thing either. This year proved to be different. I was unusually busy at work, which is a good thing for my paycheck, but a bad thing for you my loyal reader…err readers. So instead I present to you…

1st Annual NHL Trade Deadline Wrap Up for the Lightning

Here is how it broke down

New Assets:

Richard Petiot - Defenseman
Noah Welch - Defenseman
3rd Round Pick
Matt Lashoff - Defenseman
Martins Karsums - Forward

Losses:

Mark Recchi
2nd Round Pick in 2010
Steve Eminger
Olaf Kolzig
Jamie Heward
Andy Rogers
4th Round Pick

In case you were wondering how this stacked up to my Trade Deadline Preview Column the Lightning traded a:

Most Likely to be Moved - Recchi
Could help a Contender - Eminger
M*A*S*H - Kolzig (Heward would have been in this category as well if I thought someone would take him).

Not bad when it comes to my usual track record for predictions.

The first thing critics and commenters like to do is rate how the teams did after deadline deals. For me, it’s more about did the team improve itself. In the case of the Lightning, did they improve themselves for next year and the year beyond? The answer - not really.

On the same token they didn’t do anything to ruin the franchise either. Vincent is still here as is Marty St Louis. I heard a rumor that Tortorella wanted Marty in New York, but they couldn’t make it work. They saved some salary by getting Toronto to take Kolzig and Heward off of their hands for the rest of the season.

A lot of people are criticizing the move as a sign of financial trouble, and they could be right. However, and maybe this is the fact that I’ve spent the last decade working for a company that operates at a 2% profit margin, they got another team to pay for players that aren’t going to suit up for them this year. All it cost them was a 4th round pick. The money they save (TSN pegged it at about $500,000) on this deal could help them keep a player they may be forced to move later.

For me the most bizarre move was the Eminger deal. Noah Welch is older (by a year) and has been injured for most of his career. In the last 3 seasons he’s played a total of 29 games due to shoulder injuries. Meanwhile, Eminger was one of the steadiest players on a blue line that was ravaged by injuries this year. The move also leaves Paul Ranger and Andrej Meszaros as the only defensive players that have played significant time in the NHL with contracts for next year. Lukas the Farmer, Matt Smaby and Mike Lundin are Restricted Free Agents so it stands to reason that they will be on the team next season. Ty Wisert is signed through next year, but spent most of this year in the minors. All in all, it’s not exactly a rock solid foundation to build from.

It would have been nice for Recchi to stick around, but when he was scratched for last nights game it was a foregone conclusion that he would be moved. Was he going to bring a huge return? Of course not. Boston offered to decent prospects that can help replenish a farm system that still needs player. Could they cut it in the NHL? Maybe.

Normally I listen to TSN on draft day, but due to technical difficulties at work the best I could do was a Montreal sports station. It was fun listening to them bash the Canadians, basically writing this season off as a failure. I’m sure if the Lightning were in 5th place in the Eastern Conference everyone would be giddy as a proverbial school boy on his first date. Also amusing was the fact the former hockey pugilist PJ Stock has his own show. Maybe one of the local stations here should give Enrico Ciccone a shot.

On the station they spent most of the day lamenting the lack of action by the Canadians and debating the merits of a blockbuster trade. Lecavalier was brought up a few times as was Ilya Kovalchuck. The general consensus was one that I had expressed several times. With the salary cap as it is, bringing in a player of that caliber and cap hit would necessitate moving so many pieces that there wouldn’t be any high caliber players left for them to play with - or as Stock eloquently stated, “Who would be Lecavalier’s Marty St Louis?”

I was surprised that there wasn’t more interest in some of the Lightning’s veteran defenseman like Krajicek or Marek Malik. Early in the day it was announced the Chris Pronger was off the market and Filip Kuba had signed an extension with Ottawa. With two of the big name blue liners off of the market, it could have created a demand for players that could have been role players.

In the end it could have been better and it could have been worse. Most importantly, as night falls over the TBA Vincent Lecavalier is still a member of the Lightning. Despite the rumors and the fear mongering on the internet tubes the face of the franchise is still wearing the uniform. If he’ll still be wearing it after July 1st is a worry for another day.